Thursday, August 10, 2006

Low(ell) expectations

Seeing Mike Lowell hit the first half of this season was a pleasant surprise to all of us - it really seemed he was back to his pre-2005 form. But after a hot 1st half (BA/OBP/SLG: .307/.359/.516), he's seriously cooled down (.200/.258/.350). Now everyone's saying he's reverting to "2005 form".

Not quite true. He's still pretty much in his pre-2005 form. Problem is, his pre-2005 form consistently involved massive slumps after the All-Star break:

2004: pre-ASB .305/.384/.571; post-ASB .277/.341/.423
2003: pre-ASB .275/.351/.586; post-ASB .281/.348/.388
2002: pre-ASB .311/.374/.527; post-ASB .232/.308/.398
2001: pre-ASB .285/.350/.480; post-ASB .281/.330/.415

Sometimes (but not always) a drop in hitting and ability to get on base; always a huge drop in power. His career OPS is 100 points lower after the ASB than it was before (it would be much higher if his first half of 2005 wasn't so pathetic). Probably best not to count on this particular hitter coming out of his funk the rest of this season.


  1. Unrelated, but not really worthy of a new post.

    Last night, after his last at-bat, Miguel Tejada flipped off a fan, with his middle finger.

    Interesting coming from the guy who had such a huge problem with D-Lowe grabbing his crotch after striking out Adam Melheuse to end the 2003 Division Series. So its okay to flip off the fans, even though part of the reason he said he was so upset was because his family was at the game. I guess they weren't in Baltimore last night. BTW footnote on that - Melheuse was pinch hitting for Jermaine Dye. Future WS MVP and top 10 AL slugger.

  2. God I hate that guy.

    (Some of my previous rants here and here.)

  3. Bronson is still searching for win number 10..... Didn't pitch terribly, but did give up 3 more HRs. Bringing his season total to 26, inlcuding 11 in his last 5 starts.

  4. Funny, I was just working on a post about that. Probably not worth it. One year ago today, he got his 10th win.

    Well, I'm still fine with the trade, I guess. Not like he would make much difference: his recent ERA of 5.5 or whatever is about average for Sox starters...

  5. Yeah, so are we better off with Arroyo in the rotation and Kapeler playing every day in RF or ___________ (fill in the blank) and WMP? Flip a coin. Really.