Monday, March 20, 2006

More Holy Crap!!!!

Bye Bye Bronson. This could be a huge deal for the Sox. Pena is a darn good player and can platoon with Trot, fill in when Trot has inevitable injury and take over for him next year. All for significantly fewer dollars. I actually think I had talked about this trade earlier in the winter since we had a glut of pitching and Cincy had a glut of OF.


  1. I don't like it. Two reasons:

    1) Pena's lifetime OBP is .303. This is sub-Hillenbrand levels.
    2) I know he was stupid for thinking this, but Arroyo thought he had job security when he signed his contract. Might make it harder to sign other players (or we may see more demands for no-trade clauses).

  2. Yeah, BUT. He has some serious power - ISO of nearly .250 - , he mashes left handed pitching and he is only 24.

    I think the concern with Bronson is a legitimate one to an extent, but the reality is players will come to the Sox if we pay them and frankly I don't think Bronson left that much money on the table. Especially now that he is pitching in Great America Ballpark and his numbers are likely to erode.

    I actually think it is a pretty good trade

  3. Well, it makes for nice insurance given Nixon might be seriously in decline. The OBP thing scares me though -- the guy doesn't know how to draw a walk.

    And of course it's sad that we've lost another of The Twenty-Five. How many are left now, 9? Schilling, Wake, Nixon, Tek, Papi, Manny, Youk, Foulke, Timlin. (We can only assume with Gonzalez and Pena, Kapler's done.)

  4. I am just dissappointed that this news has trumped my rant on Jeff Passan. I think the best part about this trade is the fact that Wiley Mo is 24. That and his first name is "Wiley Mo". I agree with Jesse that this might paint the Red Sox as a bit two-faced. My gut is telling me this is going to be a rough year for the Sox (e.g. 3rd place finish and lots of finger pointing). I am glad Theo is back, but I am giving him a solid "B" for the offseason. Not sure if he could have done much better, so it might be unfair.

  5. There's also the issue of home/away splits. Pena's slugging drops 40 points when he plays outside of Cincinnatti. Hopefully Fenway will be kind.

  6. ...and we gave Cincy cash for the deal. I hope it wasn't too much.

    Yeah, I really don't like it. I'd love to be proven wrong though.

  7. I think Dino is right. The key here is that he is only 24. He really could breakout right around now. Sure, he hasn't taken many walks, but I would rather focus on what he can do - which is hit for power. Hell, most Dominican players rarely walk. When he plays, he is likely to be batting 8th (or possibly 7th), I don't need a guy with a .350 OBP hitting 8th.

    Earl, I think you'll come to like this guy and this move.

    Another nice thing would be if he does break out and Sheff goes into a tailspin/injury/head exploding induced slump, then the Yanks will have to watch one of their former top prospects prosper with Boston.

    Dino - one thing I will add, is if this team finishes third, it would be hard to give them an offseason grade of B. I know some of the moves were made for the long(er) run, but there are generally only two grades in Boston A or F.

  8. "...and we gave Cincy cash for the deal. I hope it wasn't too much."

    Two thoughts on that - one, I've said a million times I don't really care about giving away John Henry's cash and two, EVERY time a high revenue team trades with a low revenue team there is cash involved - hell we even gave CLE $1MM in the Crisp deal - not b/c CLE was absorbing salaries, just because.

  9. So you're saying if Jimy had just batted Shea Hillenbrand 8th, you'd have been fine with him?

    As for cash, your second point (about different-size market teams) is a good one, but I don't like the first. I do care when we spend John Henry's money, since it's limited. And if you say it's not limited, then...we're no better than the Yankees.

  10. Well, when Hillenbrand was a rookie and drawing something like 15 walks in 500 AB, I think he was something like 26. And had not been raised on the DR. Had no power. And pretty much could not run a lick. And was a slightly below average fielder. Pena still has a lot to prove, but at 24 he is a lot more likely to be a much better player than Shea (he may already be....)

    And as for the money, a million here and a million there are fine by me. I guess where I would be upset is if they dealt so much money that it handcuffed future deals - like say signing Pedro or Lowe or even Damon.....

  11. The money thing is so ridiculous that even with Bronson earning what everyone agrees is an undermarket deal, the Sox are STILL sending money to the same franchise that gave Ramon Ortiz $3.5 Million last year and and Eric Milton like $25.5 MM over 3.

  12. Yeah, we'll see - it'll be interesting. If Pena does match his slugging potential, yes, it was a great trade. If not, I think the Hillenbrand analogy (lifetime OBP/SLG of .329/.450) isn't a bad one.

    Another thing is how the fans will react. Pena has the about the same SO:AB ratio as Bellhorn when Bellhorn was booed out of town; Bellhorn draws about 4x as many walks though. If Pena hits lots of HR, the fans won't care if he breaks the single-season K record; if he doesn't, he will be very unpopular.

  13. i would also like to add the Big Papi and Manny feature to this trade...

    Ortiz just played with this kid in the WBC, and Manny seems to love anyone from his home country...Those two guys mentoring a potential future Ortiz in terms of power could be unbelievable.

    Plus, we are talking about saving some of John Henry's money here. This team is getting younger and younger and gathering players with tremendous upside while remaining a legit threat this season.

    Arroyo was going to the pen. And with the way DiNardo is pitching he will likely be the long man out there...

    I am also venturing a guess that they feel pretty strongly that Foulke is going to be healthy and that Wells is going to stay and pitch often...