George Steinbrenner is predicting the New York Yankees' five-year World Series drought will end this October. If I had that pitching staff, I would not be predicting anything of the sort.
But, now that we are on the topic, let me make some predictions...
Mike Mussina will win 11 games this year...He'll also lose at least 9. He'll spend time on the DL.
Jared Wright will continue his suckiness...
Wang will also spend time on the DL.
Randy Johnson is going to win 17...he will not be any more dominant than last year.
The Yankees will score a bunch of runs...They will also be scored upon...alot...
Their lack of pitching will leave Georgie very sad in the end...
Niiice....you said it all.
ReplyDeleteI hope you're right with all of those. The one that worries me the most is Johnson. He could break down, and be even worse; but there's a chance he'll revert to Arizona form and be dominating.
ReplyDeleteRemember when I predicted that Kevin Brown's head may explode. And then it nearly did.
ReplyDeleteI can't fault George for predicting a winner - what is he supposed to do? say that he just wants to make the playoffs? I actually like that he is talking this year. It makes things more interesting.
It really should be an interesting season. The traditional top two teams both have a ton of questions - I don't think it would surprise anyone if either the Sox won 100 games or won 79.
Imagine if the Unit ruptures a disc and Sheffield's head explodes. And Giambi ends up on the DL.
also, Pavano is a huuuuuuuge ????? He already has some issues. Its funny that Yankee publiscist George King is writing at every chance he can that Pavano is the key to the Yankees success this year. Please. That is like saying Clement is the key to the Sox. One thing for sure, the Yanks won't find an Aaron Small AND Shawn Chacon to bail them out this year. Without those guys and add an injury to Sheff....
On the other hand, if they stay healthy, IF Farnworth adopts to NY, IF Dotel returns, and IF Carl and Randy "adjust" in year two they could win 100.
Same deal with the Sox.
Schilling says he is 100%, but apparently has not been pushing off and driving. Could win 5. Could win 18.
Beckett. Could win 10. could breakthrough to 20.
Wake will win his 12-14 games.
Clement - could win 16-20. could win 9. Who knows.
Arroyo will win 12.
Foulke could return to 2004 form or could play like last year.
I hope timlin is not the 2005 Embree.
Riske, Taverez - tough second halves last year.
And I don't even want to think about TOR.
One last thought - what team would Rheal Cormier play for in the WBC?
About Randy Johnson...I heard a "fact"...No pitcher over 40 has ever won 20 games in a season...Can anyone verify this?
ReplyDeleteI just think that RJ has had back problems over the past several years, and I think that showed in his slider being flat last year. If he doesn't have the slider he becomes very hittable...
Also, his dominance of two years ago could in part have a little something to do with that terrible offensive division...
No doubt that he could be excellent, but I am not seeing it that way...
And, X, you know I can't resist a good list of player stats...So with that in mind, here are my starting predictions for the Sox this year...Keep in mind we don't have a starting rotation anywhere near set in stone.
Beckett will be very good, but will spend some time on the DL...15 wins.
Schilling will go 16-6 with an ERA in the low 4s. The pen will get some wins when he pitches.
Wakefield...his 14-15 (I agree with that).
Clement? I think the offseason will allow him to clear his head. He'll get 13.
Arroyo/Papelbon. I think Arroyo may end up in the pen, but, at this point, I'd rather see Papelbon out there. This combo gets a combined 15. Best combo #5 in the majors.
That's right...A ridiculous prediction of over 70 wins from our starters.
I believe that those 5/6 guys will keep us in just about every game. I know we have some questions marks in our pen, but this isn't last year. We have some capable arms out there, and, on what I believe to be, a very short leash. I don't see any hesitation to get Delcarmen or Hansen up here, if needed.
If this lineup can gel, this is an excellent team.
Cy Young won 21 games for Boston in 1907, at age 40, and 21 more in 1908, at age 41. That may be it.
ReplyDeleteIn the recent crop of "old pitchers" (age 40 and up), none have done terribly well in the AL. In his last year in NY, Clemens (age 40) had an ERA of 3.91; last two seasons in the NL it went down to 2.98, then 1.87! Randy Johnson's ERA jumped up 1.2 points going from Arizona (at age 40) to New York. And we all know about Kevin Brown.
The only successful older AL pitcher I can think of is Kenny Rogers in 2005 (age 40), posting an ERA of 3.46. League average that year was 4.45. (Though Randy Johnson was at 3.79, which is better than I thought.)
GR I hope you are right. Obviously you have your optimist glasses on.
ReplyDeleteIf Beckett is the only one that spends time on the DL (and still wins 15 games) then this team could really be a juggernut.
But just as much as those guys could all reach those numbers you put out there (the upside), I think they have prepared for the likelihood that one or more of the guys will go down. And while I think all of your numbers are reasonable, one of those guys will only win 5 games this year.
Also, Phil Niekro won 21 games in 1979, at age 40. (Of course, he lost 20 that year.)
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