Monday, May 02, 2005


Ok, as predicted Arroyo has been outstanding. 3-0 and solid. One might say he's the most consistent pitcher on the Sox right now.

Enough gloating...

I love the fact that the Yankees could go 15-10 (.667 winning percentage) over their next 25 and only climb to .500.

The Os look real. But...can their pitching last an entire season? I think beyond their lineup being so strong, they seem to play with tenacity...They are Tampa Bay with better talent.

The scuttlebutt around here is that Clemens may be pursued by the Sox. I don't know, it would be great to see him in Boston because he would give the Sox a huge push toward another championship. But, it would feel like a NY World Series...bought and not as special. I'd rather see Schilling, Wells, and Miller come off the DL and get us there. That is a heck of a trio.

By the way, with all these tenuous arms, would it be soooo bad to pitch Miller and/or Wells every two times around the rotation? Stick with a 5-man, but the fifth man is different every time around with Wells and Miller rotating. It gives you a great rotation and ensures that guys are healthy toward the end of the season and in the playoffs...That will never happen. Baseball has become too mired in its ways, no more risk takers. Everyone has the 5-man rotation, every one has setup guys and closers. I still contend that the "Closer By Committee" would have worked with the right bullpen.

What can one say about the White Sox? Their pitching looks great with Buerhle and Garland and El Dookie and Contreras...It is just really difficult to believe that the two latter will be great all year (and, if they are, they will more than likely have to pitch in Fenway and we know how that works out)...


  1. I agree with pretty much everything you said. Arroyo's been great, and what's fun is that he doesn't have super-dominant stuff -- he simply pitches well enough (and smart enough) to keep the other team off balance and the Sox in the game. The hit batsmen are a little much -- is he going for the record? -- but otherwise he's great to watch.

    Some of these suddenly-dominant pitchers I have to wonder about in terms of the whole season, esp. Chen and Garland. I just don't see it lasting all season. Then again, everyone said that about Loaiza in 2003.

  2. Also I've had fun reading Arroyo's interviews -- as loopy as Derek Lowe, only...well, smart (sorry Derek). When asked about whether the huge suspensions will act as a deterrent for future retaliation, he said "That's like asking if the death penalty is a deterrent to killing people." Man, Schilling's head must've exploded when we heard that.

    Speaking of exploding heads, have you seen Kung Fu Hustle? If not, go see it.


    I said NOW.

  3. The O's and White sox are interesting - not sure either team will keep it up, but for different reasons. White sox ERA is around 3.00 - probably won't keep it up, but they do seem to get these monster seasons out of these guys. And they will play almost 60 games against KC, Detroit and Cleveland.

    The O's - I'm not sure the question is "can their pitching last an entire season." The are currently 10th in the league in ERA. They are scoring 6 runs a game - pace for almost a 1,000. It is a bit frightening. I think they will pound teams in the second division, they got a bunch of games out of the way with the Yanks early, while the Yanks are struggling, lucky for them. They may stick around for a long time.

    Excellent point on the Yanks about 15-10 in May. So pretty much they will have to play their asses off to not have a losing record heading into June. Yikes!

    Looking closely at Arroyo, the most encouraging item is (especially the last 3 starts) he has been able to go deep in the game. Definitely has been our most consistent pitcher. And he has received the Derek Lowe run support in his wins.

    Not sure much has changed from his performance last year. Which, as I predicted, was that what we saw last year is exactly what we'll get this year. And that's exactly what we are seeing.


    178 IP 171 Hits (about 1 an inning) 17 HR (one per 10 innings), WHIP 1.22, ERA 4.03.


    31 innings 32 hits (one an inning), 3 HRs (one per 10 innings), WHIP 1.23, ERA 3.69 (essentially one run).

    The numbers don't lie - although I guess we could both be right. His performance could be exactly the same AND he could win 15 games this year. although not sure any of that is attributable to a new pitch :-)

  4. I agree, Arroyo is pitching the way he should - smart. His stuff isn't over powering so he's got to stay ahead in counts and be smart about his pitch selection. If he works with Varitek this shouldn't be a problem.

    As for the White Sox, let's see how they do now that they play the rest of the league. I am still not convinced that the central has any team that can win 90 plus (even the Twins).

  5. Quick question about slappy et al...

    Jeter, A-Rod, and Sheffield seem to be hitting the cover off the ball, but power numbers (A-Rod exception) are down...

    Is it possible that teams watched how the Sox pitch this lineup in the final four games of the ALCS and are exploiting the weaknesses? Matsui is hitting in the 250s!!!

    Also, isn't it interesting that not only are HRs down around the league, but pitching velocity as well?

  6. Oh, also...Arroyo's new pitch is the very inside pitch. He featured it against Tampa Bay. It really keeps hitters off balance and it VERY difficult to hit.

  7. Matt:

    You're definitely right about slugging being down, but it's not just the Yankees...

    (All data in OBP/SLG/OPS)

    2004 Sox .360/.472/.832
    2005 Sox .360/.449/.809

    2004 Yanks .353/.458/.811
    2005 Yanks .356/.423/.779

    Each team has an almost identical OBP as last year, but has suffered a 25-point drop in slugging. I guess that explains the tons of runners stranded on base for each team.

    [This is a sort of interesting piece of data in regards to the whole "how much more important is OBP than SLG" debate.]

  8. What is the impact on Runs scored per game?

    Too busy to look up myself, but my get feel is that the Sox are about on target from last year, while the Yanks are down quite a bit.

    Although looking at those numbers I would now guess that the Sox and Yanks are down a bit in runs/game.

    Yet it is the Yankee bats that seem to be rather anemic this year - maybe that is masked by the A-Rod 10 RBI game and their 19-8 win. No, not that 19-8 game last year - the one they won this year.