Rodrigo Lopez, on paper, looks like a reasonably average pitcher. Lifetime ERA of 4.36, WHIP of 1.36, BAA .267, 6.2 K/9IP, 2.9 BB/9IP, for a 40-33 record (not bad considering his team). His numbers are a bit better if you remove his 6 games pitched for the Padres in 2000 and only look at his career with the Orioles (2002 and since): ERA of 4.18, etc.
Against the Red Sox, at first he only looks marginally different. His ERA is quite a bit better -- 3.73, but most of the other numbers are about the same: 1.36 WHIP, .259 BAA, 6.1K/9IP, 3.2 BB/9IP. Record vs. the Sox of 9-4 (though it feels like 12-1 or so). But a couple things stand out...
- On April 26 of this year he got shelled by Boston, 8ER in 3.1 IP. Take out that one start (out of 15), and his ERA against the Sox is 3.12.
- In his MLB career, he's started 94 games, and pitched 610.1 innings. Against the Red Sox, he's started 15 games, and pitched 101.1 innings. So as a major leaguer, nearly one-sixth of his pitching has been against the Red Sox.
- Over the course of his career, he's given up 1.17 HR/9IP. Against the Sox, that number is more than halved: 0.53HR/9IP. Since 2002, the Sox have hit 1.3HR/9innings.
- Looking just at his pitching in Fenway: in 9 starts (58.2 IP, or 10% of his career IP) his WHIP is 1.24, BAA is .230, and ERA is 2.91. He's 6-1 there, meaning at Camden Yards he's 3-3 with a 4.81 ERA against the Sox. He's only given up two home runs at Fenway, or 0.31HR/9IP.
Okay, so maybe 58.2 IP is too small a sample size. But so far he seems to be utterly dominant in Fenway, against Red Sox teams that were built for hitting there.
His contract with the Orioles ends after the 2005 season.
Earl, I am guessing from the way you ended you post that you basically saying, "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em". In this case, if we can't beat Cy Lopez, may as well bring him into the fold? Although, he's pretty mediocre against other teams. Still one has to wonder does he have our number or does he fit well into Fenway? Not sure if that is even possible to answer.
ReplyDeleteI am guessing that the O's are going to try to stay competitive. If they have their choice of guys to sign, I am guessing that they will keep Lopez...And they have shown that they will spend to get players now.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, unless we have to face them in the playoffs it isn't that big a deal overall. If the guy isn't killing other teams then he doesn't add much to the O's except that he beats the Red Sox. And that is what? 3-4 maybe 5 times a year they may face him...
I'd rather the Sox go after a guy that is good everywhere...
Lopez is good in Fenway and he said that he loves to pitch there. He must know how to use the park...
I dunno... in looking over his numbers, nothing really jumps out to make me think he's a good fit for Fenway. He's not an extreme GB guy, and doesn't K a ton, righties get on base at a slightly lower rate but slug tremendusly higher... aka, a lot of wall-ball hits. I would be tempted to place these numbers in the sall-sample size pile. But it's an interesting idea, especially givn the light upcoming FA market for pitchers.
ReplyDeleteJust as an FYI before anyone starte chomping at the bit - and I'm glad to hear that noone here is pulling the Steinbrenner-esque trick of wanting a guy just b/c he has beaten you in the past. Lopez is NOT a FA after the 2005 season.
ReplyDeleteEarl wrote his contract is up after the 2005 season, but as a player with less than six full seasons in the big (he will have about 4 years and 30 days), the Os control him through 2007. So barring a non-tender situation, which is not likely given his (much) better than replacement level pitching and the O's budget, he will be offerred arbitration this year and next.
Those stats are truly amazing, especially when you consider Park Affects and that the Sox have had basically the best offense in baseball the entire time.
And since we last visited the topic of Arroyo, he appears to have come right back to where he was last year (and statistically after his 6 starts this year). Same ERA, WHIP, same opponenets AVG. While it is a bit noticeable that his K rate has dropped a bit, my opinion of him has changed a bit. While I don't think he will ever be a true ace/18 game winner type (barring Derek Lowe like run support, which is possible), he does pitch brilliantly for periods of time. You could do a lot a worse than handing him the ball in a big game (playoff?). He could dominate. Of course when he goes bad, he tends to go bad in a big way, but I would take my chances with him over Jaret Wright or Kevin Brown. Maybe an even choice with Pavano.
Good point. Not an FA, meaning yeah, he's an Oriole for at least another two seasons. Assuming the Orioles continue to play this well, and he really is great at Fenway and not just a fluke, that'll be quite annoying.
ReplyDeleteBut here's hoping this is not a case of Pedro-vs.-the-Mariners but rather just an Enrique Wilson-vs.-Pedro. In that case, the law of averages will catch up to him someday.
Oh man, last night's game is even on the homepage of Lopez's old winter team, the Culiacan Tomato Growers. Man they have a nice logo. And cheerleaders too.
ReplyDeleteThough I hear Mexican Winter League is being utterly ruined by the Obregon Yaquis. Do you think fans of the other teams go to games wearing "YAQUIS SUCK" shirts?
Could you imagine how pissed off Bob Ryan would be if the Sox got cheerleaders? I'm pretty sure he would declare that this was the end of the world as we know it and that the game has been desecrated beyond recognitions. Kind of like when they put seats on the green monster
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Or introduced the Wild Card
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Or interleague play
And the Wild Card
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Introduced the DH
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Yeah, maybe they should introduce cheerleaders just to make his head explode. That would be cool.
ReplyDeletei Por la Revancha !
The Boss is at it again. He summoned Cashman to KC. Not sure what is allegedly going to happen there - I can't picture the Boss going there.
ReplyDeleteThe timing is brilliant, however. The sox kick their butts so the Boss launches more missives right before the Yanks play the worst team in baseball.
And news just announced - Edgar Renteria - player of the week.
I threw this in to my post today, but Arroyo has basically not been right since his suspension. And by not been right I mean he's exploded.
ReplyDeleteI look for him to right the ship and still live up to my prediction of "better than last year" and a possible "2 or 3 starter".
I agree with x...I would definitely rather hand the ball to Arroyo than to Wright or Brown, and, at this point, Pavano. Possibly even Mussina...
Oh, and the Yankees lost to KC...Maybe the Sox taking two of three let some of that wind out of their sails...