Yesterday's game was number 82, meaning it technically kicked off the second half of the season. The first half went well, with the Sox 46-35; on pace for 92 wins, good but not great. (The Other Sox are on pace for 110 wins, and will still get 97 if they play .500 ball the rest of the way.) But you have to wonder how many wins Boston would have if Foulke and Embree had been good. Or even "bad but not terrible". My guess, based on absolutely nothing, is 51 or so. Sox are third-from-last in the AL in team ERA, with 4.84 (beating out KC and TB, by quite a bit). Spot Embree and Foulke ERA's of 5.00, and the team ERA drops to 4.44; it's still high, but such a change makes a huge difference for a team that scores 5.56 runs a game.
But now it's the second half. Foulke is gone for a while, and hopefully when he comes back he'll be either a great setup/mopup man, or better yet, Keith Foulke (2004 edition). I'm not sure we'll ever see Embree pitch for the Sox again (watch him pitch 3 innings tonight). Changes to the bullpen are coming very soon, and so hopefully the second half will be better than the first.
Nice evaluation of the First Half, looking at each player individually, over at Boston Blood Sox.
The First Game of the Rest of the Season was encouraging, with a 7-4 win over the Rangers. Wakefield pitched 8 strong innings; Timlin needed just 6 pitches for the 3-out save (when was the last time we saw something like that?). All 6 pitches were for strikes, and one of the outs was by a nice catch by Damon. Hopefully he's not hurt. All the offense was via the Long Ball, with a 1-run HR by Mueller, a 2-run HR by Ortiz, and a 4-run HR (known to some as a "Grand Slam", after the Denny's breakfast) by Manny. His 20th career GS, putting him just three back of the all-time leader, Lou Gehrig. He watched the ball for a really long time -- Remy thought it was because he didn't think it was going out but I'm not so sure. Grandstanding aside...if it had stayed in the park, but was dropped by Matthews, he would have been held at first. Please, Manny, at least jog!
Tonight is Clement vs. Park. Clement is looking to bounce back from his worst start of the season. A win would be nice...because, you know, wins are better than losses. Also, Sox have dropped the last 2 series against good teams, and let's not make that a 3-series streak.
Vote Posednik 2005.
Do you think we should all stop making statments like "if White Sox play .500 ball the rest of the year....." A lot of people have been kicking that around for the last 6 weeks or so. On ESPN they said SHI went 18-7 in June. Sure they are playing a bit over their expected wins, but they are consistently outscoring their opponents.
ReplyDeleteWith the Manny home run, the bases were loaded, and the ball was hit very high and deep...That means the runners (all of them) probably would have tagged which means that Manny has nowhere to go until something happens to the ball. I don't fault him for that one...I would say that Ortiz watches his homers more than Manny.
ReplyDeleteI think the .500 the rest of the way is a decent benchmark. Playing under .500 is the mark of a poor team, at .500 decent, above, well...above...Yes, the White Sox have been great and you wouldn't expect them to fall to the poor status. I think it is just a shorter way of saying that...
I just said that to put it in perspective. My point was: barring a massive collapse, they'll make the playoffs.
ReplyDeletebut they are consistently outscoring their opponents.
Sure, by one run a game. I'm sick of all the media slobbering over Guillen's amazing use of "small ball". Offensively, they're an average AL team, 6th-8th in the league in most important offensive statistics. It's their pitching that's gotten them where they are.
Okay, I take it back a bit. The only reason I think I brought it up was that it had been mentioned here before (a while ago) that they wouuld not continue the pace and while I was inb Hawaii I met a Twins fan that was absolutely convinced that CHW collapse was imminent and that the Twinkies would claim the division.
ReplyDeleteI wasn't necessarily lauding Guillen's small ball use. My main point on the runs was that the white sox are not the Nationals - who are a ridiculous 51-32 while being outscored by their opponents. Thanks to a silly 23-7 record - including 12 straight vicotries in one run games. 12 straight one run victories amazing.
The White Sox are a very impressive 22-8 in one run games as well, but there numbers appear to hold up upon closer inspection.
To change the subject a bit...today's globe would make it seem that if Foulke were his dominant self the Sox would have some huge lead. Yes I am very disturbed with his performance but really by my calculation he has cost us exactly 3 games. since good closers convert 80-85% of his chances, perhaps an average performance would mean only blowng 1 or 2 of those.
He blew Monday. He blew last Tuesday's vs. CLE. And he blew the BAL when he gave up 2 HRs in the 9th. His other 2 losses cam in tie games (the Jeter HR and in game 2 and one other game vs. TOR).
I'm just not buying this if not for Foulke we would be up 10 games crap. Of course the problem needs to be addressed.
I openly admit it was I who predicted the White Sox would cool down. And they still might. But they've played well enough for long enough to make the playoffs, whatever happens.
ReplyDeleteI still say Atlanta will beat the Nats in the division. Cordero's arm will fall off. I'm seriously concerned about that guy's career now. Everyone's going ga-ga over Frank Robinson's management style -- let's see what they say when Cordero pulls a Foulke, at age 25.
Yup, Foulke did not cost the Sox more than 2-3 games (though it could've been much worse had he not been given all those 3-run save opportunities). But do you agree with my original post, that Embree's + Foulke's suckage cost about 5?
Yeah the combination of Embree and Foulke would be about 5. I would say that is a good number.
ReplyDeleteAs for the Nats that race is going to tighten up. Guillen is due to ge beserk. Atlanta will likely make a push, but so may the Marlins. Of course if neither of them get their act together, the Nats could sneak into the playoffs. after all, if they play .500 ball the rest of the season, they will win 90 or 91 games which could be enough to win the division. HA HA HA!!!
Well, the number would be 5 except that Foulke saved some games and Embree at least got us out of one jam...
ReplyDeleteWith that said, you can blame a number of individuals on this team for a number of lost games.