I love that thought though. "Hm, I should give up a run so Ortiz can be the hero again, in a few innings from now. With Tavarez, Delcarmen, and Hansen in the bullpen. What can possibly go wrong?"
Seriously though - we've all seen the numbers about "how there is no such thing as a clutch hitter". Has anyone done an analysis to see if Papi actually is one (by whatever definition you use)? This is one thing that I think that baseball statheads get wrong - stats can show what has happened, and what is likely, but not what is "possible" or "impossible".
Yeah there actually is a chapter in mind game (I think) that is titled "Is David Ortiz really a clutch hitter.
If it is not mind game, it is "Baseball Between the Numbers" The answer was sort of. The seamheads generally hang their hat on sample sizes being too small or the "skill" not carrying over from one season to another. Like BABIP.
This is tomorrow (Tuesday) and I still feel those great elational moments from yesterday. The full gamut....despair, nevousness, and then....UTTER JOY, yet again. 3 in 8 games for papi. Wow!
So did Papelbon give up a run on purpose so that Ortiz can win it in the 9th.
ReplyDeleteUh, no.
ReplyDeletemaybe in the 12th?
ReplyDeleteWell, here he comes...
ReplyDeleteI love that thought though. "Hm, I should give up a run so Ortiz can be the hero again, in a few innings from now. With Tavarez, Delcarmen, and Hansen in the bullpen. What can possibly go wrong?"
ReplyDeleteGiddyup !!!
ReplyDeleteHoly fuck. Good call.
ReplyDeleteObviously kidding. But I would love to go post that on some Yankee blog just to see their temperatures rise.
ReplyDeleteBut they are right - no such thing as clutch hitting. Ortiz only cam through 1 out of 3 with the game on the line tonight.
Seriously though - we've all seen the numbers about "how there is no such thing as a clutch hitter". Has anyone done an analysis to see if Papi actually is one (by whatever definition you use)? This is one thing that I think that baseball statheads get wrong - stats can show what has happened, and what is likely, but not what is "possible" or "impossible".
ReplyDeleteYeah there actually is a chapter in mind game (I think) that is titled "Is David Ortiz really a clutch hitter.
ReplyDeleteIf it is not mind game, it is "Baseball Between the Numbers" The answer was sort of. The seamheads generally hang their hat on sample sizes being too small or the "skill" not carrying over from one season to another. Like BABIP.
Well, they have almost half of a third year to include in their analysis. I wonder when a sample size stops being small?
ReplyDelete"I wonder when a sample size stops being small?"
ReplyDeleteWhen they support one's argument, I suppose.
Just what I was thinking.
ReplyDeleteThis is tomorrow (Tuesday) and I still feel those great elational moments from yesterday. The full gamut....despair, nevousness, and then....UTTER JOY, yet again. 3 in 8 games for papi. Wow!
ReplyDelete