Ok, Sox fans...Time to appreciate what your team is doing. Get over the inferiority fears...The Yankees are gone. The Sox won the division, the Yankees were the Wild Card. The Sox advance to the ALCS, the Yankees do not.
But...some Sox fans are saying that the team is not better than the Yankees if they can't beat Cleveland. Not true, but let's take a look at the matchups.
CC v Beckett
Sabathia is left-handed. The Sox don't hit left-handers very well. That is bad. But, the Sox have Beckett. The back end of the Sox bullpen is better. So, keep this one close and have it be decided between Borowski and Paps.
Daisuke v Carmona
This is not good...Unless the good Daisuke shows up. The Sox were shut out by this kid earlier this year. But that was in Cleveland. He beat the Yankees in Cleveland. Can he pitch in Fenway? We'll see.
Schilling v Westbrook
Schilling.
Wakefield v Byrd
Seeing as how the Yankees got 10 runners on in 5 innings against this guy, I've got to say he doesn't stand much of a chance against the Sox lineup. But how will Wakefield fair?
Then back to the top...
The Sox should try to win this in five because it might get a little hairy after that. Pitching Dice-K second sets Schilling up for Game 7. But do we want to go that far???
It's a fascinating match up and in a way I am glad it's not the MFY because now we can focus on good baseball rather than rivalry.
ReplyDeleteIt feels like game 1 is extra important because on paper Fausto vs. DikeK goes to Fausto. Without a win in game 1 we risk elimination in games 5 and 6 when the order comes back around. I am confident that we can get to Westbrook and Byrd, especially if we are aggressive at the plate.
Francona and Theo would be idiots to let Dice-K start game 2. Schilling was great. He has earned it. And anyone who says that starting Dice K in game 3 sets him up to pitch a game 7 should refer to exhibit A - Pinella, Lou. You can't worry about game 7, before games 1-4.
ReplyDeleteBut I am 100% confident they will get it right - they learned on Dice K in game 2. Instead of the normal Francona, leavng a guy in to work out of his jams, he realized its the postseason and got him the heck out.
I would be SHOCKED if Schill does not go in game 2.
X, hate to break it to you, but Matsuzaka has already been announced as the game 2 starter, at least according to the Glob. That gives Schill an extra two days rest, which is probably part of the rationale, and gives the Sox at least one very probable win in the series instead of three even-chance games. Don't know whether that's a good thing or a bad thing, but... there it be.
ReplyDeleteHere's hoping that they come to their senses.....
ReplyDeleteYeah, I'm not a fan on Daisuke in Game 2, but oh well. I have a feeling neither team's pitching will be quite as awesome in the ALCS as they were in the ALDS, given the quality of the opposing batters. (I'm talking averages here - there very well may be a dominant performance or two. But I don't see Byrd/Daisuke allowing 10 baserunners but only 2-3 runs in 5 IP, like they did this last series.)
ReplyDeleteActually, Extra Bases says it's Schill in game 2:
ReplyDeleteTerry Francona just announced that Curt Schilling will be pitching in Game 2 against the Indians, with Daisuke Matsuzaka pitching in Game 3. Josh Beckett will, of course, go in the first game of the series.
Tim Wakefield is the hope for Game 4, though that could all depend on how his back/shoulder feels over the next few days. He and Jon Lester are both expected to throw today, moved up from tomorrow because of weather concerns.
The Indians have announced that they will go with C.C. Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, and Jake Westbrook for their rotation.
...and the Associated Press as well.
ReplyDeleteAndrew is a liar. A lying liar who tells lots of lies. Lyingly.
Its not Andrew who lied, but apparently something call the Glob.
ReplyDeleteEither way, I don't care so long as the better decision was ultimately reached. Or as Col Nathan Jessup would say "either way, I don't give a damn what you think you are entitled to."
Funny...I actually see Daisuke pitching a gem here. He didn't tire himself out in the last start, and he has a habit of figuring out what he did wrong previously. I think it was pretty obvious that he was nibbling too much and just needs to attack the strike zone like he did early in the year. His velocity is there, the movement on his pitches is there...I am saying 1 run, 7+ innings...
ReplyDeleteAlso, and Earl, Dino and I have discussed this many times over many beers...But, I think umpires are very tight with their strike zones in Fenway because of Questec (or however it is spelled).
I am rarely this happy to be wrong. This is the right choice.
ReplyDeleteFor my next trick, I am going to convince you that Eric Hinske will get the start at DH against Sabathia, because Sabathia is a lefty.
And hey, so is Eric Hinske, but I'm not letting that stop me.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to be the glass full guy with Dice-K, but at this point, he has shown that he is a big a crapshoot as there is. I thought he'd do great vs. Anaheim - he'd pitched well in his last start, he had 6 days off, the Angels have no real pop. So I don't think anyone can say for sure what the Sox will get.
ReplyDeleteAlso, the Questec argument is a little weak (especially as it pertains to Dice-K). His best start of the year (his first) was in KC (no questec), but he also pitched like crap in Baltimore, Comerica, and Texas (no questec and 14 walks in 19 innings). In TOR, he walked 6 guys in 13 innings, even though his results were okay.
In fact, while it is well documented that Dice-K gets better results on the road, it is not due to fewer walks:
Home 30 BB in 92 IP
Away 50 BB in 112 IP
I know you could make the argument that b/c of Questec, he has to lay it in there more closely at home and that leads to more hits and thus the more runs, but I think that would be overanalyzing it a bit.
I do think there is something that lets him get more comfortable on the road - his K tate at home is quite a bit lower than on the road. I just don't think it is Questec. Schilling used to whine about Questec all the time, but he has been a great Fenway pitcher since coming to BOS.
I'd love to see Hinske at 1b (rest Youk), Cash catching and Mirabelli DHing. While we're at it Cora starts at 2b instead of Pedroia.
ReplyDeleteMaybe that confuses Sabathia and hurts his feelings...
Be careful with that suggestion. Terry might take you up on it....
ReplyDeleteRegular season Terry, maybe. But we haven't seen that guy for a week or so.
ReplyDeleteThank goodness.
ReplyDeleteDamon is at it again:
"We got beat in the four games played,' Damon said. "Overall, are they the better team? I don't know."
For (at least) the second year in a row, he is deluding himself when his team loses in the playoffs. Saying that the better team did not win.
This is just Yankee-itis. Unfortunately, this past weekend I was subjected to the Yankee radio broadcast (as I visited the Catskills). The most amazing thing is the how overt the assumption is that they will win. (Man, that's a gross sentence... I hope it makes sense). As for example, there is a car-ad or something that starts off with, "Just as the champagne will pop in the Yankees dug-out..." Ugh! Then of course there are the announcers who started talking about Jaba and Mariano in the 3rd inning when the Yankees had a 1 run lead (against Carmona), "If the score stays this way, we'll see Jaba and Mariano close this out".
ReplyDeleteIt is so pervasive that I can't blame anyone in particular. I think it is just the mentality of New York - we are the champs and if we don't make the series that is an exception to the rule.