Okay, so Jesse has been on a "NL = cozy park" theme of late. Where cozy parks = many HRs.
This one I had an opinion on - not a stong one, but an opinion and my opinion was the AL had the cozy parks (camden yards, texas, comiskey, Fenway - even though I KNOW the numbers say otherwise) and the ptichers parks are in the NL (LA, Pac Bell, SD, FLA).
So again. Lets go to the numbers. Park affect statistics for 2004.
Based on runs scored.
Colorado 1.412
Texas 1.217
White Sox 1.139
Toronto 1.128
Chicago (NL) 1.123
Fenway 1.12
Camden 1.077
PacBell 1.069
Arizona 1.068
Minnesota 1.045
Milwaukee 1.042
Philly 1.024
Oakland 1.012
Houston 1.004
Atlanta 0.991
New York (NL) 0.974
Anaheim 0.972
Cleveland 0.96
St. Louis 0.936
Detroit 0.923
New York (AL) 0.922
Pittsburgh 0.918
Tampa 0.911
KC 0.91
LA 0.909
Montreal 0.899
FLA 0.898
Cincy 0.847
SD 0.837
Seattle 0.834
Clearly the NL has the better pitchers parks. But this does not equal cozy parks in terms of HRs - after all, the aforementioned Fenway is a hitters park (with 12 % more runs scored there) but it has 2.4% less HR than the average park.
So, pure rankings for HR.
White Sox 1.402
Chicago (NL) 1.329
Arizona 1.29
Colorado 1.235
Philly 1.134
Atlanta 1.128
Toronto 1.117
Oakland 1.089
Texas 1.087
Houston 1.075
Anaheim 1.062
Camden 1.05
Cincy 1.048
Seattle 1.033
NY (AL) 1.029
LA 1.016
Tampa 1.007
FLA 0.987
Milw 0.981
Fenway 0.974
Minnta 0.925
PacBell 0.899
Pitts 0.876
Detroit 0.871
Mont 0.85
NY (NL) 0.804
St.L 0.798
Cleve 0.742
KC 0.706
SD 0.691
Two things jumped out at me.
1. Colorado was not number one?
2. Jesse was right!!
Colorado is a good place for HR as we all know, but their hitters hit them both at home (111) and on the road (91) and their pitchers give them up in both places (110/88). Whereas the White Sox hit 145 HR at home (and pitchers gave up 127) (interesting in that there were far more gross HRs hit in CWS than Coors) and hit only 97 (and allowed 97) on the Road. Led by Konerko with a 29/12 H/R split and Frank Thomas 14/4.
And while the sum in each league does equal 1.00 thus effectively negating the effects of all park affects in the aggregate (yes it sounds stupid but is true), there is a large enough gap in the standard deviation to make a difference for individual hitters (i.e., Bonds and Beltre while playing mid to tough parks get to play almost 25% of their games in AZ and Colorado), let alone the slugger (say Thome)who plays half his games in Philly and 20 more in ATL.
One last thing I did was divide Park affect runs by park affect HRs, which would yield parks with a disproportionate share of their runs being scored via the HR. That analysis gave no real trend by league and I had trouble drawing a correlation about what it meant.
Good call Jesse.
Okay, so here is the ratio of park affect runs to hrs
ReplyDeletePA Runs PA HRs Ratio
Seattle 0.834 1.033 0.807357212
Cincy 0.847 1.048 0.808206107
White Sox 1.139 1.402 0.812410842
Arizona 1.068 1.29 0.827906977
Chicago (NL) 1.123 1.329 0.844996238
Atlanta 0.991 1.128 0.878546099
LA 0.909 1.016 0.894685039
New York (AL) 0.922 1.029 0.896015549
Philly 1.024 1.134 0.902998236
Tampa 0.911 1.007 0.904667329
FLA 0.898 0.987 0.909827761
Anaheim 0.972 1.062 0.915254237
Oakland 1.012 1.089 0.929292929
Houston 1.004 1.075 0.933953488
Toronto 1.128 1.117 1.009847807
Camden 1.077 1.05 1.025714286
Pittsburgh 0.918 0.876 1.047945205
Montreal 0.899 0.85 1.057647059
Detroit 0.923 0.871 1.059701493
Milwaukee 1.042 0.981 1.062181448
Texas 1.217 1.087 1.119595216
Minnesota 1.045 0.925 1.12972973
Colorado 1.412 1.235 1.143319838
Fenway 1.12 0.974 1.149897331
St. Louis 0.936 0.798 1.172932331
PacBell 1.069 0.899 1.189098999
SD 0.837 0.691 1.211287988
New York (NL) 0.974 0.804 1.211442786
KC 0.91 0.706 1.288951841
Cleveland 0.96 0.742 1.293800539
Okay, so here is the ratio of park affect runs to hrs.
ReplyDeleteIn descending order - meaning runs are more likely to be scored via the HR. So n Seattle you are likely to hit as many HR as in any park, but there will be 17% less runs scored in the game - I guess meaning if you don't hit HRs you won't score. Same could be said in Cincy (almost the same numbers)
On the other end you have Cleveland where you will score about an average number of runs, but hit 25% less HRs.
There is no pattern here in terms of hitters parks to home run parks, but I could guess the park dimensions (among other things) would come into play - slight pitcher parks LA and NY (A) have large foul territories which may mean a few extra popouts, but the number of HRs are near the league average.
I would imagine teams use this info to build their rosters and even to develop a game plan. I'm still not sure the ratio is as important as the raw runs and HRs listings, but still makes for interesting analysis
PA Runs PA HRs Ratio
Seattle 0.834 1.033 0.807357212
Cincy 0.847 1.048 0.808206107
White Sox 1.139 1.402 0.812410842
Arizona 1.068 1.29 0.827906977
Chicago (NL) 1.123 1.329 0.844996238
Atlanta 0.991 1.128 0.878546099
LA 0.909 1.016 0.894685039
New York (AL) 0.922 1.029 0.896015549
Philly 1.024 1.134 0.902998236
Tampa 0.911 1.007 0.904667329
FLA 0.898 0.987 0.909827761
Anaheim 0.972 1.062 0.915254237
Oakland 1.012 1.089 0.929292929
Houston 1.004 1.075 0.933953488
Toronto 1.128 1.117 1.009847807
Camden 1.077 1.05 1.025714286
Pittsburgh 0.918 0.876 1.047945205
Montreal 0.899 0.85 1.057647059
Detroit 0.923 0.871 1.059701493
Milwaukee 1.042 0.981 1.062181448
Texas 1.217 1.087 1.119595216
Minnesota 1.045 0.925 1.12972973
Colorado 1.412 1.235 1.143319838
Fenway 1.12 0.974 1.149897331
St. Louis 0.936 0.798 1.172932331
PacBell 1.069 0.899 1.189098999
SD 0.837 0.691 1.211287988
New York (NL) 0.974 0.804 1.211442786
KC 0.91 0.706 1.288951841
Cleveland 0.96 0.742 1.293800539
All very cool. So I should know the answer to this question but I don't: are these numbers corrected for who plays there? I mean, would the Fenway or Busch HR numbers be even lower if the home teams didn't each have a couple 40+ HR guys? (Where would PacBell be on the list without Bonds?) I'm sure effects of hitters (and pitchers!) could be removed, but damn that would be a lot of work.
ReplyDeleteFor the most part, the calculations do take into affect the players, since it is the ratio of HRs hit in a teams home park versus the home runs hit in away games. For instance, the White Sox hit 145 HRs and their opponenets hit 127 at Comiskey while on the road they hit 97 and gave up 97. Thus the ratio is 272/194 - 1.40.
ReplyDeleteSo it does consider (as best it can) that they same sluggers are getting essentially the same number of ABs and the same pitchers are pitching the same number of innings.
It is not perfect if your schedule is a little out of whack (especailly now with unbalanced schedules and interleague play), if a player is on the DL at some point, or just inherent randomness - like Schilling made 18 of his 32 starts at home this year, where I know he was something ridiculous like 12-0 although I don't know how his ERA/HR splits were.
But at the end of the day, it does consider the players/teams and if you look at the lists they really do make sense.
One PS - you specifically mentioned Bonds and I looked him up when assessing the results to see if he really influenced things. Funny thing is he hit more HR at PacBell (26 Home/19 away). But the team as a whole hit 88 at home and 95 away - so without him it would be an even more difficult place to hit HRs - so Pac Bell would be .8688 insteand of .899.
In related news, I can believe this!!! Who cares about baseball when there are people in this world that would try to mess with the most sacred values of man kind.
ReplyDeleteThis makes me sick!
Let's try to stay on topic here.
ReplyDeleteTake for instance when I decided to stray dangerously close and debate the relative interest in seeing 18 year old TV stars naked, I created a new post for that.
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDelete[url=http://www.exgirlnude.com]nude,uncovered,girlfriends,girls,porn,better half,wives[/url]
ReplyDelete[url=http://www.xgirlnude.com]Sexy pictures of naked girls, naked girlfriends, wives having sexual congress, voyeur porn, swinger gender and college coeds getting naughty[/url]
[url=http://www.exgirlnude.com]exgirlnude[/url]
[url=http://www.xgirlnude.com]xgirlnude[/url]
my wifes glowing cam [url=http://www.camspotadult.com]camspotadult[/url]........
[url=http://www.exgirlnude.com]nude,unassisted,girlfriends,girls,porn,wife,wives[/url]
ReplyDelete[url=http://www.xgirlnude.com]Sexy pictures of naked girls, nude girlfriends, wives having sexual congress, voyeur porn, swinger coitus and college coeds getting naughty[/url]
[url=http://www.exgirlnude.com]exgirlnude[/url]
[url=http://www.xgirlnude.com]xgirlnude[/url]
my neighbours real cam [url=http://www.camspotadult.com]camspotadult[/url]........
[url=http://www.exgirlnude.com]nude,uncovered,girlfriends,girls,porn,wife,wives[/url]
ReplyDelete[url=http://www.xgirlnude.com]Sexy pictures of in the nude girls, uncovered girlfriends, wives having sexual congress, voyeur porn, swinger coitus and college coeds getting naughty[/url]
[url=http://www.exgirlnude.com]exgirlnude[/url]
[url=http://www.xgirlnude.com]xgirlnude[/url]
my girlfriends live cam [url=http://www.camspotadult.com]camspotadult[/url]........
3d hentai 3gp [url=http://www.cityhardcore.com]porn[/url] adult [url=http://www.cityhardcore.com]dvds films[/url] manumitted satirize magazines pay per perspective
ReplyDeletesex [url=http://www.cityhardcore.com]movies [/url]neighbourhood xxx anal anime lesbian asian ass fucking bbw video obese negroid
[url=http://www.cityhardcore.com]dick gay cock lesbians pussy broadband [/url]
christy christymarks staff katsuni clubkatsuni dildo salacious
download movie dvd eben gentile ebony
prurient videos dazzling interracial
plastic online clips girls methodical hardcore
porno hd sphere [url=http://www.cityhardcore.com]hentaixxx [/url]heinous outlining demoiselle incest league japanese
having making rapture strap on strapon teens lesbo
active season crux holes mike
filsaime milf naked au naturel
voiced [url=http://www.cityhardcore.com]pichunter downloads[/url] pics sites somebody tube
childlike racks and blacks actual on velvet schefren vid vids sexy toon sexe webcam
big dvd eben infidel ebony
erotic videos hot interracial
[url=http://www.cityhardcore.com]hardcore[/url]
[url=http://www.cityhardcore.com]cityhardcore.com[/url]
Being competent to judge footage, speed, and time is the opener to operation to an intersection safely.
ReplyDeleteA reputable [url=http://www.floridatrafficinstitute.com]florida traffic school [/url]can help you understand this.
Drivers obligation be able to adjudge how much outmoded it will decide them to proceed sometimes non-standard due to the intersection at their widespread suddenness of travel.
Do they have the outmoded at that speed to safely travelling the required detachment in the presence of a cross-traffic state of affairs occurs?
You ought to be prepared to hold back within the last 100 feet latest to an intersection.
If you come off to pass these marks, do not back your conveyance up, as pedestrians may be walking behind your vehicle.
Parenthetically lanes are in behalf of passing. There is no secret or trick to driving, the driver hardly needs to be paying attention.
Motor agency operators should usage a passing lane when the attempted maneuver is perceived as protected and discerning and can be completed without the use of unconscionable speed.
The maneuver must also be completed within a moderate amount of mores, and the driver requisite have okay visibility of all roadways and vehicles he or she may upset or be mannered by.
Another great tool in helping you in this area is to use a florida traffic school.
Drivers should be advised that highway on-ramps are in behalf of entr‚e to and preparation quest of highway driving. When entering highways, drivers must no longer travel at the drastically reduced speeds of the essence for see driving.
Drivers are called upon to expansion speeds to that of the highway above and use the on-ramp and subsequent merging lanes as a means to whirl smoothly into highway traffic.
Drivers be obliged signal, gain alacrity, and unite safely into the flood of traffic.
Combine lanes, of passage, are toughened object of “merging” – they are typically unexpectedly past nature and will expiration at some spot in time. Lane closures also end at some station in time.
Closed lanes on a highway command special r‚clame and driver courtesy.
Some drivers on be tabled until the mould imaginable twinkling of an eye and take on to squeeze into transport in advance of the lane closes.
Other drivers call to be aware that these drivers are a well-defined threaten to the drift of traffic. Attempts to cube such inconsiderate drivers may prospect to other more important consequences, such as driver confrontations or multiple pile crashes.
All drivers force a charge to correct their timeliness in status to let gaps representing merging traffic. If drivers decently space their following stretch, these adjustments wish be trivial and effectively effectual to the even flow of traffic. If you are traveling in the settle lane and you technique a freeway onramp, you should be aware that other traffic may whack at to blend either in in advance of you or behind you.
If you can, it is best to make a deep impression on in default of the upright lane to permit these vehicles easier entrance.
More tips on defensive driving will follow.
Nicole Drug Overdose http://cookiecuttermini.com/ - order valium The medication replaced Lirbium on the market and was considered a more powerful alternative as it is 2. [url=http://cookiecuttermini.com/]buy diazepam[/url]
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDelete