Tuesday, February 01, 2005

Old topic. New thread. Part II

Okay, so Jesse has been on a "NL = cozy park" theme of late. Where cozy parks = many HRs.

This one I had an opinion on - not a stong one, but an opinion and my opinion was the AL had the cozy parks (camden yards, texas, comiskey, Fenway - even though I KNOW the numbers say otherwise) and the ptichers parks are in the NL (LA, Pac Bell, SD, FLA).

So again. Lets go to the numbers. Park affect statistics for 2004.

Based on runs scored.

Colorado 1.412
Texas 1.217
White Sox 1.139
Toronto 1.128
Chicago (NL) 1.123
Fenway 1.12
Camden 1.077
PacBell 1.069
Arizona 1.068
Minnesota 1.045
Milwaukee 1.042
Philly 1.024
Oakland 1.012
Houston 1.004
Atlanta 0.991
New York (NL) 0.974
Anaheim 0.972
Cleveland 0.96
St. Louis 0.936
Detroit 0.923
New York (AL) 0.922
Pittsburgh 0.918
Tampa 0.911
KC 0.91
LA 0.909
Montreal 0.899
FLA 0.898
Cincy 0.847
SD 0.837
Seattle 0.834


Clearly the NL has the better pitchers parks. But this does not equal cozy parks in terms of HRs - after all, the aforementioned Fenway is a hitters park (with 12 % more runs scored there) but it has 2.4% less HR than the average park.

So, pure rankings for HR.

White Sox 1.402
Chicago (NL) 1.329
Arizona 1.29
Colorado 1.235
Philly 1.134
Atlanta 1.128
Toronto 1.117
Oakland 1.089
Texas 1.087
Houston 1.075
Anaheim 1.062
Camden 1.05
Cincy 1.048
Seattle 1.033
NY (AL) 1.029
LA 1.016
Tampa 1.007
FLA 0.987
Milw 0.981
Fenway 0.974
Minnta 0.925
PacBell 0.899
Pitts 0.876
Detroit 0.871
Mont 0.85
NY (NL) 0.804
St.L 0.798
Cleve 0.742
KC 0.706
SD 0.691

Two things jumped out at me.
1. Colorado was not number one?
2. Jesse was right!!

Colorado is a good place for HR as we all know, but their hitters hit them both at home (111) and on the road (91) and their pitchers give them up in both places (110/88). Whereas the White Sox hit 145 HR at home (and pitchers gave up 127) (interesting in that there were far more gross HRs hit in CWS than Coors) and hit only 97 (and allowed 97) on the Road. Led by Konerko with a 29/12 H/R split and Frank Thomas 14/4.

And while the sum in each league does equal 1.00 thus effectively negating the effects of all park affects in the aggregate (yes it sounds stupid but is true), there is a large enough gap in the standard deviation to make a difference for individual hitters (i.e., Bonds and Beltre while playing mid to tough parks get to play almost 25% of their games in AZ and Colorado), let alone the slugger (say Thome)who plays half his games in Philly and 20 more in ATL.

One last thing I did was divide Park affect runs by park affect HRs, which would yield parks with a disproportionate share of their runs being scored via the HR. That analysis gave no real trend by league and I had trouble drawing a correlation about what it meant.

Good call Jesse.

14 comments:

  1. Okay, so here is the ratio of park affect runs to hrs

    PA Runs PA HRs Ratio
    Seattle 0.834 1.033 0.807357212
    Cincy 0.847 1.048 0.808206107
    White Sox 1.139 1.402 0.812410842
    Arizona 1.068 1.29 0.827906977
    Chicago (NL) 1.123 1.329 0.844996238
    Atlanta 0.991 1.128 0.878546099
    LA 0.909 1.016 0.894685039
    New York (AL) 0.922 1.029 0.896015549
    Philly 1.024 1.134 0.902998236
    Tampa 0.911 1.007 0.904667329
    FLA 0.898 0.987 0.909827761
    Anaheim 0.972 1.062 0.915254237
    Oakland 1.012 1.089 0.929292929
    Houston 1.004 1.075 0.933953488
    Toronto 1.128 1.117 1.009847807
    Camden 1.077 1.05 1.025714286
    Pittsburgh 0.918 0.876 1.047945205
    Montreal 0.899 0.85 1.057647059
    Detroit 0.923 0.871 1.059701493
    Milwaukee 1.042 0.981 1.062181448
    Texas 1.217 1.087 1.119595216
    Minnesota 1.045 0.925 1.12972973
    Colorado 1.412 1.235 1.143319838
    Fenway 1.12 0.974 1.149897331
    St. Louis 0.936 0.798 1.172932331
    PacBell 1.069 0.899 1.189098999
    SD 0.837 0.691 1.211287988
    New York (NL) 0.974 0.804 1.211442786
    KC 0.91 0.706 1.288951841
    Cleveland 0.96 0.742 1.293800539

    ReplyDelete
  2. Okay, so here is the ratio of park affect runs to hrs.
    In descending order - meaning runs are more likely to be scored via the HR. So n Seattle you are likely to hit as many HR as in any park, but there will be 17% less runs scored in the game - I guess meaning if you don't hit HRs you won't score. Same could be said in Cincy (almost the same numbers)

    On the other end you have Cleveland where you will score about an average number of runs, but hit 25% less HRs.

    There is no pattern here in terms of hitters parks to home run parks, but I could guess the park dimensions (among other things) would come into play - slight pitcher parks LA and NY (A) have large foul territories which may mean a few extra popouts, but the number of HRs are near the league average.

    I would imagine teams use this info to build their rosters and even to develop a game plan. I'm still not sure the ratio is as important as the raw runs and HRs listings, but still makes for interesting analysis

    PA Runs PA HRs Ratio
    Seattle 0.834 1.033 0.807357212
    Cincy 0.847 1.048 0.808206107
    White Sox 1.139 1.402 0.812410842
    Arizona 1.068 1.29 0.827906977
    Chicago (NL) 1.123 1.329 0.844996238
    Atlanta 0.991 1.128 0.878546099
    LA 0.909 1.016 0.894685039
    New York (AL) 0.922 1.029 0.896015549
    Philly 1.024 1.134 0.902998236
    Tampa 0.911 1.007 0.904667329
    FLA 0.898 0.987 0.909827761
    Anaheim 0.972 1.062 0.915254237
    Oakland 1.012 1.089 0.929292929
    Houston 1.004 1.075 0.933953488
    Toronto 1.128 1.117 1.009847807
    Camden 1.077 1.05 1.025714286
    Pittsburgh 0.918 0.876 1.047945205
    Montreal 0.899 0.85 1.057647059
    Detroit 0.923 0.871 1.059701493
    Milwaukee 1.042 0.981 1.062181448
    Texas 1.217 1.087 1.119595216
    Minnesota 1.045 0.925 1.12972973
    Colorado 1.412 1.235 1.143319838
    Fenway 1.12 0.974 1.149897331
    St. Louis 0.936 0.798 1.172932331
    PacBell 1.069 0.899 1.189098999
    SD 0.837 0.691 1.211287988
    New York (NL) 0.974 0.804 1.211442786
    KC 0.91 0.706 1.288951841
    Cleveland 0.96 0.742 1.293800539

    ReplyDelete
  3. All very cool. So I should know the answer to this question but I don't: are these numbers corrected for who plays there? I mean, would the Fenway or Busch HR numbers be even lower if the home teams didn't each have a couple 40+ HR guys? (Where would PacBell be on the list without Bonds?) I'm sure effects of hitters (and pitchers!) could be removed, but damn that would be a lot of work.

    ReplyDelete
  4. For the most part, the calculations do take into affect the players, since it is the ratio of HRs hit in a teams home park versus the home runs hit in away games. For instance, the White Sox hit 145 HRs and their opponenets hit 127 at Comiskey while on the road they hit 97 and gave up 97. Thus the ratio is 272/194 - 1.40.

    So it does consider (as best it can) that they same sluggers are getting essentially the same number of ABs and the same pitchers are pitching the same number of innings.

    It is not perfect if your schedule is a little out of whack (especailly now with unbalanced schedules and interleague play), if a player is on the DL at some point, or just inherent randomness - like Schilling made 18 of his 32 starts at home this year, where I know he was something ridiculous like 12-0 although I don't know how his ERA/HR splits were.

    But at the end of the day, it does consider the players/teams and if you look at the lists they really do make sense.

    One PS - you specifically mentioned Bonds and I looked him up when assessing the results to see if he really influenced things. Funny thing is he hit more HR at PacBell (26 Home/19 away). But the team as a whole hit 88 at home and 95 away - so without him it would be an even more difficult place to hit HRs - so Pac Bell would be .8688 insteand of .899.

    ReplyDelete
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