Saturday, November 24, 2007

...played by Johan San-ta-na

Buster Olney reports Santana is looking to set a new record in pitching contracts - something like $150M/yr for 6 years or so. (He's already rejected an offer of $16.6M/year for 5 years.) If that's right, you have to assume he's not going to be traded - he can use his no-trade clause as a massive bargaining chip. So he can ratchet up the price; meanwhile the Twins stand to get compensation picks if he leaves after 2008, so the trade itself would have to be a damn good offer. So the Sox would have to give up a bunch of young players (something like Lester, Buchholz, Crisp, and a minor leaguer or two), and sign away well over $100M (plus insurance, and possibly luxury tax) over 6 years. Thanks but no thanks. Maybe the Mets or Dodgers will go for it; but I don't see him in Boston or the Bronx next year.

1 comment:

  1. There has been some dispute over the actual numbers in the Twins offer, but the points are all valid. Then again the four MLB ready players and prospects we are all hearing about right not is pretty much the same as Boras' asking for $350 MM. And Johan can ask for $150/6 and that is the same thing. If he ends up in BOS or either LA or NY, his marketing and championship potentials are exponentially higher.

    However, I'm not so sure the Sox or Yanks would not make a deal. And the Mets will likely go hard since they need pitching and Minaya needs to make a splash.

    I'd do the Lester/Bucholz/Crisp deal and give him the $150 (its not my money).

    As we have talked about before a rotation of Beckett, Johan and Dice-K for the next 3 years would be scary.