Wow...if you look at last year's standings from exactly one year ago today it breaks down like this...
Last Year
Sox 56-45
Yankees 54-46 1.5 back
Today
Sox 61-39
Yankees 59-40 1.5 back
So, the Sox and Yankees are where they were last year. They ended up with the same record, and both made the playoffs.
This year, however, the competition around the league is tougher (of course, BOTH the Yankees and Sox are better this year, too...which was obviously ignored by everyone that said it is "OBVIOUS" that the Wild Card comes out of the Central. Let's look at some of the other teams around the league for playoff spots at roughly 100 games into the season.
The Sox and Yankees each 5.5 games ahead of their paces last year...both finished 95-67 last year. The pace this year plays out like this...
Sox 99 wins
Yankees 97 wins
The Sox win the division, but do the Yankees get in at 97 (37.38 wins left at this pace)wins? What a strange question to ask. 97 wins should be a lock...
Tigers on pace to win 109...even if they go 31-30 the rest of the way, they'll have 98 wins...It is probably safe to say they'll make the playoffs.
White Sox and Twins at their current winning percentage are both projected to win 36.58 games the rest of the season. That gives them 95-96 wins each.
Now, not all these teams will continue at this exact pace, and variation will kick in down the stretch. But projecting to the end of the year, there is a 4-game spread for 5 teams vying for 2 playoff spots.
Now, out of these 5 teams, I see two teams possibly getting better without trades and that's the Yankees IF Matsui and/or Sheffield returns. The other is the White Sox, who (as of late) have been underachieving)...Of course the "Ozzie" factor might be starting to show in Chicago, too, but we can only take what we are seeing into account.
I think the Red Sox are playing at their level. They definitely need another starter, and Wake is Wake. Lester also will lose some games (he won't go undefeated)...Of course, Wells could come in and be huge for the rotation. I also believe the Twins are playing above their level. Liriano and Santana have lit that team up. I can't see them keeping this torrid pace alive. They've put themselves right back in it, but they can't play 34-8 every 42 games...nor do they have to...
In short...all teams wanting to make the playoffs will have to play at an exceptional level the rest of the way. A 5-6 game skid, or a bad run of .500 ball for two weeks could bury any of them.
My random thoughts:
ReplyDeleteI think there is some level of posturing by the Sox on bringing wells back "Tuesday" and being very enthusiastic on it. I.e., attempting to not show desparation. I said about a week ago that if the Sox can get 5 decent starts out of Wells (and get them through Aug when rosters can expand) the sox will be more than happy.
Carlos Lee is a huge addition to any team!!!!!!
Absolutely you have to give something to get something.
Nixon is going nowhere. He really has no value with his diminshed power. And while I am not a believer of chemistry on a clubhouse, Nixon might be a guy that would have an affect on the rest of the team if he is moved. Plus, if the Sox move him, it is saying that he is not a valued 5 hitter, so what contending team will deal for him? And a team won't get him to build around since he is a FA.
WMP - now he could be moved. And our FO has shown an inclination to act boldly, but you wonder if there is thought that if they move him now, it makes the Arroyo trade look even worse.
My random thoughts:
ReplyDeleteI think there is some level of posturing by the Sox on bringing wells back "Tuesday" and being very enthusiastic on it. I.e., attempting to not show desparation. I said about a week ago that if the Sox can get 5 decent starts out of Wells (and get them through Aug when rosters can expand) the sox will be more than happy.
Carlos Lee is a huge addition to any team!!!!!!
Absolutely you have to give something to get something.
Nixon is going nowhere. He really has no value with his diminshed power. And while I am not a believer of chemistry on a clubhouse, Nixon might be a guy that would have an affect on the rest of the team if he is moved. Plus, if the Sox move him, it is saying that he is not a valued 5 hitter, so what contending team will deal for him? And a team won't get him to build around since he is a FA.
WMP - now he could be moved. And our FO has shown an inclination to act boldly, but you wonder if there is thought that if they move him now, it makes the Arroyo trade look even worse.
My random thoughts:
ReplyDeleteWay too many baseball teams have a single "A" on their hats (A's, Braves, D-Backs, and Angels). That pisses me off.
The name "George" is actually really weird-sounding.
"Waterworld" was a half-decent movie in my opinion. I don't understand why everyone makes fun of it. And it wasn't the bomb everyone says it was: it's netted the studio far more than it cost to make and market.
In 20 years I bet people will look back on pop culture's current obsession with pirates in the same way we look back on the 80's-era obsession with all things Australian.
NASCAR is not a sport.
More random thoughts:
ReplyDeleteIf they are posted twice, does that make them any less random?
Isn't the name Randy even more strange than the George?
Why does Adam Morrison keep that horrible looking moustache?
I like the DH.
With all the talk that teams will not be dealing their best prospects for a rent a player, the selling GMs are all talking tough that they will not move their players unless they get what they want in return. so, if Bowden won't get two (or three) top prospects from the Angels (or whomever) for Soriano, why not throw ALL his players into one deal. Give the Angels Soriano, Livan, Armas and Vidro for Ervin Santana and Howie Kendrick (or whoever it is). Why not? Instead of trading each individually for lower level prospects, let a team load up and in the process, get yourself a few great prospects. And the acquiring team will load up on draft picks when the players leave as FAs.
ReplyDeleteI have faith in Boomer. It might be beautiful, it might be ugly. My money is on the former. And yes, we need an arm for the rotation and the 'pen. Little Manny has looked very vulnerable as of late. Turn it around time this afternoon, on Fox,at Fenway.
ReplyDelete