Wednesday, November 09, 2005

One hit wonder

Keeping on the theme of baseball awards. I decided to go back and take a look at the ROY winners and whether those players went on to be the top player in their "rookie" class. I already know the answer is going to be NO, because pitchers take longer to develop and rarely get immediate kudos. For instance Johan was a rook in 2000 and was a middle reliever/spot starter who just took some time to blossom. Like most starters - even a young Pedro threw only 100 or so innings and Clemens a middling 133 innings (and they finished 9th and 6th in ROY balloting.


1 comment:

  1. I'll start by going back to 2001, since that will give us 5 years to look at. And I probably don't have any closers on the list because they generally don't qualify for league leads. Disclaimer - I probably missed some players that have emerged.

    2001 - This may have actually been the most successful in picking a player with the best career ahead of him. NL - Pujols (with Oswalt second) and in the AL - Ichiro - even though he shouldn't really be a rookie. Next best in AL - Sabathia came in second but I would say soriano has been better. The missing pitcher that year was Beurhle who did not even register a vote.

    2000 - Winners the now retired Kaz Sasaki in the AL Furcal in the NL. The AL class was weak - either Bengie Molina (late bloomer) or Zito would be my guess as most productive to date, with the edge to Zito since he did have several dominant years. Someone could make the case for Mulder, but I won't. Based on the last 1-1/2 years, Santana was probably the cream of that crop. In the NL, Furcal is not a bad choice in the face of Rick Ankiel who was second. But overall, Lance Berkman was probably the best to emerge.

    1999 - A good job in the AL with Carlos Beltran the winner. The other big names are Eric Chavez, Hudson and Freddy Garcia (and Koch). The NL was a real miss, with Scott Williamson winning over a weak class. Preston Wilson was probably the best position player.

    1998 - This will be GR rules favorite. Ben grieve won handily, when the better careers have belonged to Magglio Ordonez (until recently) and (not real rookie) El Dookie. But probably with the last 3 years, Ortiz has worked his way to the top of that list. In the NL Kerry Wood and Todd Helton were 1-2. Won't argue with their selections, just probably in the wrong order.

    1997 - AL was dead on. Nomar. The NL was amazing. Rolen won in a class that also included (WS MVP)Livan Hernandez, Vladi, Andruw Jones (one year AFTER what should have been a WS MVP, thank you Mark Wohlers), and Matt Morris. A deep class.

    1996 - Derek Jeter. Doesn't mean I have to like him. Plus I'm not sure if Mike Sweeny would have qualified as a rookie in 96 or 97. In the NL take your pick between renteria (2nd) Kendall (3rd) and Dye (6th) - any ended up better than Todd Hollansworth.

    So that is my take - I am SURE I missed some players. feel free to point out my obvious ommissions. Andrew and GR will both think I forgot about Varitek. I didn't. Thought about him and considered the position factor, but just couldn't make that happen. And I didn't know what to make of Giambi, Sexson, Glaus.