Friday, February 23, 2007


So at first, I could only think of two reasons for there being no extension for Curt:

1. They are saving their money for a run at Zambrano or a trade and then big contract for another ace.

2. They think he does not have much left in the tank.

But after a bit more thinking, it could be a whole bunch of items:

1. A challenge for Curt. Give him a little extra incentive to have a monster season. An interesting note on Schill - he has NEVER signed a free agent contract.

2. They don't like that Curt made his pronouncement in the media.

3. They think the gamble is worth it. If he has a great year, it may take $18MM to sign him. So they feel it would be worth the extra $$ as opposed to sinking $13MM (i.e., flexibility).

4. Gambling that he really does not want to leave Boston. His kids are in school here. He knows Boston is passionate city and he gets far more media attention that he would almost anywhere else.

5. Maybe Schilling is jealous of all the attention dice-K is getting, so this has been a great way for him to keep his name front and center. Plus I liked how he pronounced himself the opening day starter. Classic.

6. All that being said, they still could work something out before season's end.

So who really knows. I just hope it does not become a Derek Lowe situation where we hear about it all year long. I don't think Schill will mope the same way, but Lord, I don't want to read 346 articles this summer about his contract.


  1. It is strange because you would think giving Schill one more year is a no brainer. Without injury...which can happen to any pitcher, he doesn't want more why not? At worst, he's a number 3.

    So here are my thoughts...

    They are looking at the slew of FAs next offseason (and possible others) and they want to free up money.

    If Beckett adjusts, Papelbon can handle it, and Daisuke is solid then maybe Schill is not a priority. Of course, it would be great to have him, but maybe they are thinking Andru Jones or Ichiro...

    And something I heard Verducci talking about...A-Rod could opt out...but to make it look legit, he could say he wants to return to being a SS. We know the Sox wanted this guy before...and they don't have to pick up Manny's options.

    I am not saying that I prefer this, but it was a discussion I heard, and, after all, Damon did go to the why not?

  2. Also, I would think that they will try to sign Schilling, but if Lester comes along, as well, what do you do?

    I would think they'd go younger and cheaper...but not necessarily just as good or better (but with potential).

  3. The more I think about this, the more it is all about maintaining flexibility. Assume he goes out and has a great year. Maybe 19-6 with a 3.60 ERA. Now all of a sudden his value is probably up to $18MM. And there is probably some team that would give him two years. If the Sox deice to keep him at $18MM, this really “costs” them an additional $5MM. However, if he gets hurt. Or has an off year. They would be locked in at $13MM. And say he is “average.” 14-9 4.44 ERA. Misses three or four starts with a nagging injury or two. Now all of a sudden, his market value is probably still $13MM for a one year deal. And if he completely blows up, he could be looking at incentive laden deal (depending especially on whether he finishes hurt or on a comeback) – anywhere from $4-10MM guaranteed. Add all those up and assign an equal probability to each. And they are probably doing the smart thing.