Saturday, September 30, 2006

Ortiz = Tom Brady??

In the little that I have followed the Pats, there seems to be this collective whining about how the Offense is struggling because Number 12 does not have Branch and Givens to throw to. It is 3 games into the season and the team is 2-1. And they play in avery weak division. Sure they have work to do, but the hacks would make it seem like they are 0-3. Of course Borges has had an ax to grind with Coach Bill for a few years, but that is another story. Which brings me to the Sox. The last two months Ortiz is getting nothing to hit. Three more walks last night. And August and September are his two highest walk total months this season. By far. Every one knows that Manny's bat will be hard to replace. And while these guys (theo and the trio) appear to not really care how the media portray their decisions, they will get crucified if Manny goes, Ortiz walks and the offense sputters. The same people that are screaming about Branch and Givens, and talked about Bagwell for years, will be all over the Sox.


  1. So I totally agree with the sentiment; I was thinking of writing a very similar post today (w/o the Pats part), and ran the numbers. Surprisingly, for all the walks, he's still getting plenty to hit.

    In the 22 games he started that Manny didn't (plenty of which were against crappy teams), he's slugging .775. And with all the walks, his OBP is over .505. So the raw numbers don't make it seem like Manny's absence matters much for his production, which I find surprising. Oh his ~100 PA, he had 28 walks, 10 homers, 9 (!) singles, and 13 strikeouts. (That's a much lower strikeout rate, and a higher HR rate, than his season average.)

    The sample size is probably too small to read into those too much. But I have to say I was still surprised by the results. And his September performance will give the "Trade Manny!" people plenty to shriek about this offseason.

  2. Of course, the alternative the Sox can pursue is to bring in a Carlos Lee or a Soriano (or someone like that) and move Ortiz to clean up. That way the number 3 guy goes on a tear, or you have to pitch to Ortiz after a walk.


    Then you look for a good #5 hitter to protect Big Papi. It doesn't have to be a 35+ HR guy, just a 20-25 HR guy.

    Plus, you unload much money off the books.

    Here's another question...Do you move Papelbon and Tavarez to the rotation (Tavarez as your number 5), and just completely rebuild your pen?

    Your rotation would be:


    After writing out that rotation, I think the Sox must seek a top of the rotation starter...How about Manny going to the Angels for some young arm out there?

  3. I might be okay with Manny being traded if both things you lay out were to happen - (1) Sox get Lee or Soriano (or possibly Jones, but then we have an outfield glut), and (2) they get a lot in return. Angels would have to give up Santana + a super-prospect (like Wood); Mets- Milledge + ?

    And yes, a front-line starter. Zito?

  4. I don't like Ortiz in the cleanup spot. They tried that at the beginning of last year and it didn't work. When they had other hitters really, really contributing at number 5 (Millar, Nomar, a healthy Tek) and manny getting on base at over a .400 clip, it worked for a short period of time. But that year and a half from May 05 to August 06 was their most productive period as 3-4 hitters.

    Lee and Soriano are nice players, but neither gives the same presence to the middle of the lineup. And at the $15MM and five year commitment it would take to get either one of them, it is hardly worth it.

    Here is something to think about when you hear chatter about Lee, Soraino or Andruw being touted as replacing Manny. Manny Ramirez - career OPS 1.010. That is his avergage, not even mentioning he has been at .982 or higher the last 8 years (and over 1.000 7 of 8). The above mentioned 3 players have never had a season over .922. Let alone 1.000. Lee and Soraino have never had a full season over .900 (although they both will barely get there this year.)

  5. Some good reading the Cards and Walt jocketty, who has been whining all week about the negative coverage his team has been receiving. I've already written about the transferrable curse, but after reading more and more stuff like below, I wonder how Jocketty would have liked to have been in Boston the last 20 or so years:

    In talking with folks around baseball the last couple of days, what you hear a lot is the concern for general manager Walt Jocketty; he is liked and respected, and nobody wants the Greatest Collapse Ever thing hung around his neck. The Cardinals will platoon in center field.

    If the Cardinals, in the end, wind up not making the playoffs, a more appropriate question than How Did They Blow It might be How Were They In First Place To Begin With. Considering all the injuries they've absorbed, the lack of depth in the rotation (besides Chris Carpenter, the ERA of the starting pitchers this season is 5.17), and the absence of Jason Isringhausen, it's amazing that they are where they are. Carpenter thinks that his last couple of outings have come down to simply executing a couple of pitches.

  6. And I guess the other thing here is all these media types are lining up to defend Jocketty and larussa, but in boston the whole curse was a "story" that was expoited to no end.

  7. One other note from today:

    "Sheffield tells John Harper he won't play first base long term unless the Yankees give him a three-year contract."

    I like that. I just don't see the Yanks giving him 3 years. This could trigger the chain of events where gets so pissed at being disrespected by the Yankees that he would be willing to come to Boston for one year $5MM. Not likely, of course. But possible.

  8. If you have not seen Dennis Leary and Lenny Clark with Don and jerry from a week ago - here it is. Pretty Damn funny.