Monday, June 18, 2007

Revisiting a couple of deals...

Dan Duquette (I believe it was him) was once quoted as saying it is best to wait until the second year of a deal to see how it actually played. What got me thinking about this one was the Arroyo-Pena deal, but then I started thinking of some others.

While it drew some heat all last summer, this deal has been pretty bad from both sides. Obviously Pena has not broken through (how can he when he bats 8 times per week and strikes out 4 of them), but Arroyo is looking particularly soft. Maybe it the toll all the innings took on him last year, maybe it is the NL hitters adjusting, who knows, but he looks awful. 6+ runs in 6 of his last 7 starts. But I would say Cincy ends up the big loser in this one. Not only did the Reds assume the "under market" three year $12MM contract for 2006-2008, but the extended him last winter for two more years/ $25MM. If he does not run it around, they will be paying a lot of $$ for someone that we pretty much knew was a 5th starter. At least Boston on pays WMP on one year deals and will probably end up getting a mid level prospect for him at some point.

Pedro - Sox look pretty smart on that one.

Johnny Damon - hard to believe that just 14 months into his Yankee tenure, he really can not play any position anymore. And his batting line is in the second year of decline. And despite a HR last night, that slugging % of .362 ranks him 77th of 94 regulars in the AL. So much for the short porch helping Damon in NY. Not if he can't stay healthy.... there is one thing to say about Damon, as much as he is an ass when giving quotes about the Yankees, I do think the players appreciate that he is out there talking to the media and taking pressure off others to do so.

Lowe - despite a mediocre record, he has pitched well this year. The Dodgers just can't hit. But he was a head case in Boston, so who knows what he would have done.

Lowell and Beckett for Sanchez and Ramirez - well, SS has been a rough patch since 2005 (that could be its own post...), that trade is looking pretty good for the Sox. Sure ramirez won the ROY and is playing pretty damn good this year, but Beckett is great this year and Lowell has been solid. Plus Sanchez is apparently heading to surgery.

Crisp - who knows. I guess one positive we can say is that he has turned out better than some of the other names bandied about as a replacement (like Jeremy Reed or Jacque Jones.). I imagine we might be seeing Elsbury after the ASB if Coco does not start hitting more consistently.

And SS, I wouldn't even know where to start.


  1. Interesting scheduling note. The Yanks played the ESPN game last night and then head to Colorado, but they have an off day (and so does colorado). They Sox, just two weeks earlier had the ESPN game and then had to fly to OAK to play the next day. And they Yanks get an off day when they fly back from the west coast. I guess in the end it all balances out, but the Sox do have a tougher travel schedule this year than usual.

  2. The one big thing that I look back on and scratch my head. Why didn't the Sox keep Orlando Cabrera? He proved he could play here. Seemed to be a good clubhouse guy, etc...

    Mirabelli for Meredith and Bard. Bad trade.

    Hanley might have been great here...but Beckett and Lowell were worth the chance.

    The toughest choices are ahead. I can't see the Sox renting a CF this year. Plus, Coco with 2 HRs last night. They've got Elsbury coming up soon. Drew and Manny are staying put. I could see them trying to get a 4th outfielder and packaging Wily Mo and a prospect or two to an NL team for a reliever.

    Also, I think Theo was right in not signing Curt, yet. He looked tired last night. He can still bring it, but he looks like he could use a break.

  3. Yeah I forgot about that Mirabelli deai. Although both Bard and Meredith have cooled from thier ridiculous 2006 seasons. In the long run, I think it will actually end up being a real no impact trade. Plus Theo (hopefully) covered himself by getting Kottaras later in the summer. At least now there is a chance they have their catcher of the future (having dealt Shoppach in the crisp deal and gotten bard....)

    I don't think the Sox wii do anything with CF. Well, except if Coco does not come out of it (or maybe stay out of it now that he seems to be a bit hotter than earlier in the season - raised his average 26 points in five games, 14 points last night alone). But if he did struggle, I could see them bringing up Elsbury after the break and see if he could be a spark. Problem is, none of the rental guys (Ichiro, Andruw, Torri) are a) likely to be available (unless you offer the farm) since thier teams will be in it and b) could very well veto deals to Boston.

    Like I said, SS could have its own post. I think they just got a little too smart for their own good. They each had been career NL guys, are almost the same age (Renteria is a year younger) and they felt that based on what he had done in hte NL, Edgar was slightly better statistically. But you are right, O-Cab had done it in Boston. I think they over analyzed it PLUS they probably didn't want to be accused of falling too much in love with the 25. Its too bad.

  4. Fire Brand of the AL has an awesome post on this very topic, specifically the SS situation. It really seems that OCab set off a series of deals one more desperate than the next.

  5. Oh...I was down in NJ this weekend and my brother-in-law and I went to the driving range. I am almost done hitting golf balls and who comes walking along but John Valentin and his son.

    Really nice guy...

    Bard definitely cooled off...but Mirabelli is terrible at the plate. At least Bard is hitting over .200...

    I still think the Sox need another quality bullpen arm. I am not sure they have that guy in AAA.

  6. Yeah, you can never have enough bullpen arms.

    Mirabelli never really hit before, so it is hard to compare given the situation with Wake.

    Funny though, as much as the O-Cab decision was strange, once they decided to cut bait with Renteria, thye handled themselves nicely with Gonzalez. Everyone knew the Sox needed a SS. And he was the best on the market last winter. Yet they stuck to their guns and got him on a cheap one year deal. It could have been worse.

    One thing not mentioned in the firebrand articl (and we will never know the truth) is that perhaps the Sox thought they might pry Tejada from the Orioles. There was speculation at the time. Maybe they thought they would get him when they dumped Renteria.

    I met John Valentin at a bar in Toronto and had a couple beers with him, Greenwell and Scott Cooper - Carlos Quintana was there as well but hid didn't speak english. Yeah,he was a cool guy.

  7. Just read the Firebrand article. To me that is a piece of crap post. Hindisght is 20/20. They guy even admits it - Renteria was the best on the market and he defended him while he struggled here.

    And Lofton? Lofton had been on the DL for parts of both 2004 and 2005, he has not played more than 133 games since 2000, was 38 years old. and that was supposed to be the answer? Sure Coc has struggled, but we all LOVED that move. The guy's arc was upward. bigtime. He was a rising star and the Sox were lucky that CLE had an even bigger (and cheaper) star in Sizemore. The only downside was that some people loved Marte - the "can't miss" prospect who has done nothing but miss.

    And back to Coco, firebrand guy says it was Theo's job to determine that Coc would fail here. In other words, Theo should have known that Coco wold break his finger.