Thursday, December 13, 2012

When will the Yankees have their 93 Loss Season

Okay to follow up on Dino's "request" for a separate post....

Yes, I think the Yanks could very soon have a disaster season just like the one the Sox did.  I will say right up front that I will employ some shady slight of hand here and apply non-scientific analysis in MANY instances.  But this is really a bar room argument. Not a scientific thesis.

Sure, the Yankees won 95 games in 2012. Get it.  And suire the roster is not set for next year. But so far they have lost Russell Martin and look to be losing Swisher and Soriano.

They probably get a catcher like Pierzynski who would be about a wash with Maritn.  Rivera is back to replace Soriano next year.  Does anyone think that Mo at 43 will be as good as Soriano was last year? Soriano had a 2.6 WAR which is basically what Rivera had the last three full seasons before 2012. Do you think he steps in and picks up where he left off? Maybe. Maybe not. 

Swisher gone - replace by Gardner. Swisher's WAR was 3.5 last year.  Gardner has the potential to match that. And has twice in his career. But he is coming of an Elsbury-eque season - injured, non performing, disappointing.  Its possible he fails massively to pick up the slack.

As for the rest of the offense, I will just lump them into two categories.  Those that played WAY over their heads last year (Cano, Jeter, most notably) and players that careers are on a downward path (Arod, Texeira, and Granderson.)  I won't bother with WAR or VORP or any stats but I will jsut say that those last three guys make a lot more outs now than they used to. And I say that even having watched the Sox lose nearly every game to the Yankees this year. Usually by 10 runs.

And their pitching.

Sabathia - wasn't his elbow hurting at the end of last year? He had hsi worst season in 5 years.
Kuroda - 38 years old. Seems like to come back to earht and not repeat ERA+ 126
Petitte - he's old
Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia?? These are guys that scare you?

So let's just say every starting Pitcher and Rivera are one game worse than last year, that's 6 wins. And then they 7 old guys in the field are one game worse. That's back to .500.  And then its just one big injury or PED suspension away from mayhem. And seriously, sure ARod will miss the start of the season. And Rivera was out from early May last year. And Gardner missed most of the season.  But really when was the last time the Yanks had a Major offensive piece go down with an injury for the year? Is their luck set to run out?

Its coming baby.  And I love that they have a budget.  They'll have noone to blame but themselves.


  1. Thanks X. I can see your point. The Yankees are really 1 serious injury away from a mediocre line up and if that happened to one of their top players, like CC or Tex than it could be even worse.

  2. And how about this. NY went 13-5 vs bos last year and 11-7 vs Toronto. I could easily see them losing 3 more games each to BOS and Toronto (maybe more) next year. I think its way more likely they are closer to 81 wins than 95. Which is my way of saying I'd take the under on wins for them.