So, Joel Hanrahan. Talk about an underwhelming move. And it feels like we've made this same move at least twice since Papel-douche left. Acquire the closer from a small market team to come into the big boy division and be the closer. Oh and he has medical concerns and/or a bad history against the AL East. Even better. Andrew Bailey. Check. Mark Melancon. Check. This feels exactly the same.
Every article I've read talks about how Hanrahan's velocity was down last year. And his walks were up.
Frankly it feels like we traded Mark Melancon for the second coming of Mark Melancon. Oh and we threw in two of the Dodger prospects we got, along with Stolmy who ahs shown some slow developing progress over the years.
I am sure they know more than me, but would the Sox have been worse off keeping Melancon and hoping one of the kids develops? Or use them for a piece that the Sox really need?
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Monday, December 17, 2012
The AL East Knuckling Under?
Are the Jays the new Marlins? Looks like a deal is done that will send Dickey from the Mets to Toronto. In return the Mets get a top-rated (but injured) catching prospect and a box of Yodels.
The question now must be asked...How will the rest of the East respond? Do they need to?
Adding Dickey goes a long way toward making the Jays rotation deep.
Johnson
Buerhle
Dickey
Morrow
Romero
But...the question is how good?
Josh Johnson has yet to pitch in the AL. His career numbers are outstanding pretty much across the board, but is he a top of the rotation guy in the AL East?
Buerhle is a high innings guy, but his results vary. Since '05 he's been basically a .500 pitcher. How will his soft throwing style be received in this heavy hitting division?
Dickey was outstanding last year. What was so different? He's been barely serviceable over his career. Will he revert?
Morrow and Romero both have talent, but (again) will they finally produce?
Looking at every other rotation in the East brings much of the same. X posted a bunch about the Yankees rotation. The Sox rotation, even with Dempster, contains all sorts of high-end potential, but just as many question marks.
It looks as though the Jays are loading up for a run THIS year. Overall, I see a cluster at the top of the AL East this year. The unbalanced schedule is going to make it a fierce competition. I don't see one team that stands out. My prediction is that 3 teams finish between 88-93 wins. The fourth place team will have at least 85 wins. The last place team won't be far below .500.
The question now must be asked...How will the rest of the East respond? Do they need to?
Adding Dickey goes a long way toward making the Jays rotation deep.
Johnson
Buerhle
Dickey
Morrow
Romero
But...the question is how good?
Josh Johnson has yet to pitch in the AL. His career numbers are outstanding pretty much across the board, but is he a top of the rotation guy in the AL East?
Buerhle is a high innings guy, but his results vary. Since '05 he's been basically a .500 pitcher. How will his soft throwing style be received in this heavy hitting division?
Dickey was outstanding last year. What was so different? He's been barely serviceable over his career. Will he revert?
Morrow and Romero both have talent, but (again) will they finally produce?
Looking at every other rotation in the East brings much of the same. X posted a bunch about the Yankees rotation. The Sox rotation, even with Dempster, contains all sorts of high-end potential, but just as many question marks.
It looks as though the Jays are loading up for a run THIS year. Overall, I see a cluster at the top of the AL East this year. The unbalanced schedule is going to make it a fierce competition. I don't see one team that stands out. My prediction is that 3 teams finish between 88-93 wins. The fourth place team will have at least 85 wins. The last place team won't be far below .500.
Thursday, December 13, 2012
When will the Yankees have their 93 Loss Season
Okay to follow up on Dino's "request" for a separate post....
Yes, I think the Yanks could very soon have a disaster season just like the one the Sox did. I will say right up front that I will employ some shady slight of hand here and apply non-scientific analysis in MANY instances. But this is really a bar room argument. Not a scientific thesis.
Sure, the Yankees won 95 games in 2012. Get it. And suire the roster is not set for next year. But so far they have lost Russell Martin and look to be losing Swisher and Soriano.
They probably get a catcher like Pierzynski who would be about a wash with Maritn. Rivera is back to replace Soriano next year. Does anyone think that Mo at 43 will be as good as Soriano was last year? Soriano had a 2.6 WAR which is basically what Rivera had the last three full seasons before 2012. Do you think he steps in and picks up where he left off? Maybe. Maybe not.
Swisher gone - replace by Gardner. Swisher's WAR was 3.5 last year. Gardner has the potential to match that. And has twice in his career. But he is coming of an Elsbury-eque season - injured, non performing, disappointing. Its possible he fails massively to pick up the slack.
As for the rest of the offense, I will just lump them into two categories. Those that played WAY over their heads last year (Cano, Jeter, most notably) and players that careers are on a downward path (Arod, Texeira, and Granderson.) I won't bother with WAR or VORP or any stats but I will jsut say that those last three guys make a lot more outs now than they used to. And I say that even having watched the Sox lose nearly every game to the Yankees this year. Usually by 10 runs.
And their pitching.
Sabathia - wasn't his elbow hurting at the end of last year? He had hsi worst season in 5 years.
Kuroda - 38 years old. Seems like to come back to earht and not repeat ERA+ 126
Petitte - he's old
Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia?? These are guys that scare you?
So let's just say every starting Pitcher and Rivera are one game worse than last year, that's 6 wins. And then they 7 old guys in the field are one game worse. That's back to .500. And then its just one big injury or PED suspension away from mayhem. And seriously, sure ARod will miss the start of the season. And Rivera was out from early May last year. And Gardner missed most of the season. But really when was the last time the Yanks had a Major offensive piece go down with an injury for the year? Is their luck set to run out?
Its coming baby. And I love that they have a budget. They'll have noone to blame but themselves.
Yes, I think the Yanks could very soon have a disaster season just like the one the Sox did. I will say right up front that I will employ some shady slight of hand here and apply non-scientific analysis in MANY instances. But this is really a bar room argument. Not a scientific thesis.
Sure, the Yankees won 95 games in 2012. Get it. And suire the roster is not set for next year. But so far they have lost Russell Martin and look to be losing Swisher and Soriano.
They probably get a catcher like Pierzynski who would be about a wash with Maritn. Rivera is back to replace Soriano next year. Does anyone think that Mo at 43 will be as good as Soriano was last year? Soriano had a 2.6 WAR which is basically what Rivera had the last three full seasons before 2012. Do you think he steps in and picks up where he left off? Maybe. Maybe not.
Swisher gone - replace by Gardner. Swisher's WAR was 3.5 last year. Gardner has the potential to match that. And has twice in his career. But he is coming of an Elsbury-eque season - injured, non performing, disappointing. Its possible he fails massively to pick up the slack.
As for the rest of the offense, I will just lump them into two categories. Those that played WAY over their heads last year (Cano, Jeter, most notably) and players that careers are on a downward path (Arod, Texeira, and Granderson.) I won't bother with WAR or VORP or any stats but I will jsut say that those last three guys make a lot more outs now than they used to. And I say that even having watched the Sox lose nearly every game to the Yankees this year. Usually by 10 runs.
And their pitching.
Sabathia - wasn't his elbow hurting at the end of last year? He had hsi worst season in 5 years.
Kuroda - 38 years old. Seems like to come back to earht and not repeat ERA+ 126
Petitte - he's old
Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia?? These are guys that scare you?
So let's just say every starting Pitcher and Rivera are one game worse than last year, that's 6 wins. And then they 7 old guys in the field are one game worse. That's back to .500. And then its just one big injury or PED suspension away from mayhem. And seriously, sure ARod will miss the start of the season. And Rivera was out from early May last year. And Gardner missed most of the season. But really when was the last time the Yanks had a Major offensive piece go down with an injury for the year? Is their luck set to run out?
Its coming baby. And I love that they have a budget. They'll have noone to blame but themselves.
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Say it ain't so youk!
My brother sent me this email this morning, which I think is fairly indicative of what some of Red Sox nation will be thinking today:
"I’ve been trying to brainstorm ways to crowdsource the $12 million Youk would be paid by the Yankees.
We could offer it to him to NOT play in the Bronx.
We could get Red Sox Nation to pledge money to the Jimmy Fund in his name – but only if he walks out of the deal.
In that case, the money would go to the Jimmy Fund and a big banner would be placed on the Dana Farber building thanking Youk.
If not, the money could be paid for banners to fly over Yankee Stadium every time he comes up to bat reminding him that he let down the kids… including this one."
I am an huge Youk fan, I was happy for him to go to Chicago because the situation last year was eating him up. I didn't agree with the move, but I think it was necessary. Youk had become too frustrated with our team and he is the type of guy that will/does spill over emotionally. We know he had issues with other players in the past.
All that being said, I don't blame him for getting his pay day with the Yankees. After all we traded him! He has no loyalty to us what so ever.
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
Don't count the Patriots out... just yet
Saturday, December 08, 2012
Dempster and Lohse at the top of the list
I think we can all agree that we need some serious improvement to our starting rotation. A quick scan of MLBtraderumors.com shows that really only two names are in the running: Dempster and Lohse. Both achieved a 3.3 or higher WAR (according to Fangraphs) in 2012, which puts them at or slightly better than Lester in 2012. To that point, I think we all agree we need more than another Lester (2012).
What this tells me is that Cherrington and crew are hoping that Farrel will work his magic and get Lester to improve. We can then supplement the line up with another Lester type (e.g. Dempster and Lohse).
Feels to me like this is a stop-gap.
Wednesday, December 05, 2012
And Now....Victorino
Are the Red Sox done with their lineup? Will there be other moves? One's answer to these questions would need to be based on which opinion you hold: 1. Is this a bridge/rebuilding year or 2. Are they trying to win now?
The Sox just completed a 3-year deal for Shane Victorino. That's the third multi-year contract they've handed out this off-season. Why do all these multi-year deals if you have younger guys ready to go? Why go from Cody Ross to Shane Victorino, especially with other teams driving the latter's price up?
Put me in the camp of the Sox think they can make a run with this new look team. So, to me, they aren't done wheeling and dealing. As of now here is their opening day lineup:
CF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
DH Ortiz
1B Napoli
3B Middlebrooks
RF Victorino
C Saltalamachhia/David Ross
LF Gomes
SS Iglesias/Ciriaco
That's a pretty deep lineup, a little weak at the bottom, but they are not done. They are in a position to deal Salty and have Ross teach Lavarnway how to call a game. They could trade Ellsbury. There are still outfielders to be had. And let's not forget the Victorino is a natural CF. Swisher and Hamilton may still be in play.
The school of thought out there is that they need another starter. But what if Lackey's woes were because of his injury? Would a 1-2-3 of Lester, Buchholz, and Lackey be horrible? The answer is no, but it wouldn't be enough against the pitching depth of the Yankees and Rays in the AL East, not to mention the other Wild Card competitors. So they need another top of the rotation guy. They obviously have major league talent to trade for it. Ellsbury could bring you that. And, heck, Greinke is still out there as a FA.
Put me in the column of "The Sox have a plan". They have a lot of flexibility, and signing all of these guys to 3-year deals makes it seem like they aren't mailing it in for one year to wait for the youngsters...
The Sox just completed a 3-year deal for Shane Victorino. That's the third multi-year contract they've handed out this off-season. Why do all these multi-year deals if you have younger guys ready to go? Why go from Cody Ross to Shane Victorino, especially with other teams driving the latter's price up?
Put me in the camp of the Sox think they can make a run with this new look team. So, to me, they aren't done wheeling and dealing. As of now here is their opening day lineup:
CF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
DH Ortiz
1B Napoli
3B Middlebrooks
RF Victorino
C Saltalamachhia/David Ross
LF Gomes
SS Iglesias/Ciriaco
That's a pretty deep lineup, a little weak at the bottom, but they are not done. They are in a position to deal Salty and have Ross teach Lavarnway how to call a game. They could trade Ellsbury. There are still outfielders to be had. And let's not forget the Victorino is a natural CF. Swisher and Hamilton may still be in play.
The school of thought out there is that they need another starter. But what if Lackey's woes were because of his injury? Would a 1-2-3 of Lester, Buchholz, and Lackey be horrible? The answer is no, but it wouldn't be enough against the pitching depth of the Yankees and Rays in the AL East, not to mention the other Wild Card competitors. So they need another top of the rotation guy. They obviously have major league talent to trade for it. Ellsbury could bring you that. And, heck, Greinke is still out there as a FA.
Put me in the column of "The Sox have a plan". They have a lot of flexibility, and signing all of these guys to 3-year deals makes it seem like they aren't mailing it in for one year to wait for the youngsters...
Monday, December 03, 2012
Napoli On Board
I am going to continue with my analysis of the Sox. Readers or not...
Napoli agreed today to join the Sox. The roster is shaping up, but it isn't what Sox fans generally expect. They are going for good guys, but are they going for good players.
The two additions they've made this far are Gomes and Napoli. This is not the Crawford or Gonzalez of the past. They will/should make for a better clubhouse, but will that translate to competing in the AL East?
Current Sox lineup:
CF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
DH Ortiz
1B Napoli
LF Gomes
3B Middlebrooks
C Salty/Lavarnway
SS Iglesias/Ciriaco
RF ???
This is not a bad lineup. I am thinking they will now go hard after Swisher. He fills out the RF role, and can play 1B while Napoli could catch. That would most likely make Saltalamacchia a trading piece.
Again, let's not forget that there's been a lot of talk about Hamilton including Lucchino saying they wouldn't do long deals but then quickly taking that back. That could mean a change of position for Ellsbury (RF) or a trade.
Having Ellsbury and Salty available for pitching may go a long way in this FA dry off-season. Are the Sox building for a run this year despite all this talk of bridging and rebuilding? It is starting to look that way.
Napoli agreed today to join the Sox. The roster is shaping up, but it isn't what Sox fans generally expect. They are going for good guys, but are they going for good players.
The two additions they've made this far are Gomes and Napoli. This is not the Crawford or Gonzalez of the past. They will/should make for a better clubhouse, but will that translate to competing in the AL East?
Current Sox lineup:
CF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
DH Ortiz
1B Napoli
LF Gomes
3B Middlebrooks
C Salty/Lavarnway
SS Iglesias/Ciriaco
RF ???
This is not a bad lineup. I am thinking they will now go hard after Swisher. He fills out the RF role, and can play 1B while Napoli could catch. That would most likely make Saltalamacchia a trading piece.
Again, let's not forget that there's been a lot of talk about Hamilton including Lucchino saying they wouldn't do long deals but then quickly taking that back. That could mean a change of position for Ellsbury (RF) or a trade.
Having Ellsbury and Salty available for pitching may go a long way in this FA dry off-season. Are the Sox building for a run this year despite all this talk of bridging and rebuilding? It is starting to look that way.
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
A Sox and GYS Reboot?
Well, it has been a while. I am thinking that this off-season might have the flavor of some of the original posts here at GYS. The Red Sox had a terrible season. Their roster is gutted. They've got to make some moves.
So where to start? How about a typical Grieve-ous posting?
The big complaint is that the Sox cannot compete this year. While I say that it was disastrous last year, I do not see why they can't drastically improve. Here's how the lineup stands right now:
CF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
DH Papi
3B Middlebrooks
LF Gomes
C Salty/Lavarnway/Ross
RF Kalish/Nava
SS Iglesias/Ciriaco
1B Mauro Gomez
The top of the lineup is solid, and while the free agent market is thin, there are some opportunities out there. Right now there is active discussion about Nick Swisher and Mike Napoli. Let's plug them into the lineup...
CF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
DH Papi
3B Middlebrooks
RF Swisher
1B Napoli
C Salty/Lavarnway/Ross
LF Gomes
SS Iglesias/Ciriaco
That's a pretty good 1-7. Weak hitting at SS, and LF is unpredictable. There are many teams that would take their chances with this lineup.
There is also talk about the Sox going after Hamilton. That would either make Ellsbury trade-able or he could be moved to left field (making Gomes a platoonable outfielder for the Sox). The lineup then is DANGEROUS.
LF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
DH Papi
CF Hamilton
3B Middlebrooks
RF Swisher
1B Napoli
C Salty/Lavarnway/Ross
SS Iglesias/Ciriaco
Now the starting pitching as it stands today.
Lester
Buchholz
Lackey
Doubront
Morales
If Lester can bounce back (and this is more likely than not...Farrell is returning), this could be an imposing 1-2-3. Doubront was very good until late in the season when he tired. Morales is the number 5...they could go with him or look elsewhere to strengthen the rotation.
The pen is a bit of a mess, but they still have some quality out there. Farrell might be able to do something with Bard as a setup guy or closer, and Bailey should be healthy out of the gate.
In a division with an aging Yankees team (that will still be good and most likely win the division), an Orioles team that rode a large wave of 1-run wins, and a Rays team that can't hit all the well, the Sox have a shot at number 2 in the division. How will the other divisions play out? Who knows? At this point, I would look at the possibilities and say that they could very well contend this year.
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Friday, April 06, 2012
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