Sunday, December 02, 2007

This might be the craziest thing this offseason

Check out this picture. Johan is already a Yankee. And he now throws right handed and appears much more fair skinned than I remember.


  1. Why are the Twins even considering the offer of Hughes, Cabrera, and a "Second-Tier" minor leaguer when the Sox are offering Lester, Coco, Lowrie, and Masterson? The Sox are offering a proven guy in Lester. Ok, he's more proven than Hughes (and he won a World Series start). A guy with a decent bat, great speed, and great defense in Coco. The Sox TOP hitting prospect, and one of, if not their best, minor league pitching prospect...?

    Something doesn't add up here. The packages offered by the Sox must not be as deep, or I would think this deal is done already.

  2. PS- I am saying that Buchholz is not the top minor league pitching prospect because he will be in the majors this year, and has already thrown a no-hitter in the bigs.

  3. ugh... Mike and Mike are reporting that Jacoby has been added to the mix. The Sox drew the line at Jacoby or Lester.

    The Yankees are drawing the line in the sand, setting a deadline of today.

    "I'm not going to be played against the Red Sox. That's not something I'll do. That's not something the Yankees should ever do, and that's I think what they're trying to do now," he said (Hank-the-tank), referring to the Twins. "So if they want the best offer that has been offered to them, then they need to make up their minds."

  4. Right. Hank said that...until the Twins come back to him and say we want a deal...just like A-Rod.

    Yes, I heard about Ellsbury, too.

    Ellsbury, Lester, Lowrie, and Masterson?

    So, basically you are trading away your center fielder and going with Coco (and no up and coming CF in the minors), your SS or 3B of the future (after Lowell or Lugo), a projected top of the rotation type, and a very good left-hander...

    Seriously, Santana is great. No doubt about that. But that's a pretty high price tag. You are also going to have to pay him 6 years/150MM.

    In near years (let's say 3 or less), they will need a catcher, a shortstop, and 3b. They will be looking for Manny's replacement, and I would think that Papi would be just about done, too. Oh yeah, throw in a CF, too. Oh yeah, and they'll have to negotiate again with Beckett.

    Again, I think they are a lock for a few championships with Santana in the rotation with Beckett and Daisuke. But I think they are almost just as much of a lock with the young guys coming up and their existing team.


  5. >Buster Olney
    is saying Ellsbury is on the table, but only if Lester is taken out.

    Do you think Hank Steinbrenner believes himself when he says stuff like that? Because no one else does.

  6. So, the Twins just traded Garza and are now looking at trading Santana (and they just lost Hunter).

    I say there is no way the Twins are competing this year if they don't get a pitcher that can be effective this year. I would then say that makes the Sox the better offer as Lester has had far more success than Hughes thus far. I would also think that the Twins would take Coco AND Lester instead of just Ellsbury.

  7. Ok... I did it. I linked to a Twin City Daily.

    Anyway, this is all sorts of interesting. Hank could be charged with tampering, but he won't. The article postulates that the Sox are really only in it to drive up the price for the Yankees and that if the deal goes their way it will ultimately fail because Theo won't give Santana 6 years. What a mess that could be.

    Good times...

  8. Yeah, but if the deal fails, the Yankees would probably get a call the next day and that deal would ultimately take place on the conditions in place right now.

    I wonder about Dan Haren. Anytime the A's want to let an ace go, I think about Mulder and Hudson.

    I was just reading on that the Angels are looking at Miguel Cabrera. All of the sudden they are addressing their need for hitters. And Toriiiiii Hunter and Cabrera would make me really want Santana. I've jumped the net into X's court...

  9. By the way, wouldn't it have been a good idea for the Mitchell report to have been released before the Winter Meetings so that GMs had an idea if the guys they're spending prospects, players, and money on, are going to be suspended?

  10. What is the over/under on players that will be suspended based on the Mitchell report. I’m guessing zero, although you can’t have an under if it is zero, so officially it 0.5. And I’d bet the under. All this talk about the report naming names, I can’t believe that a) Mitchell will actually put names in print and b) even if he does it will result in suspensions. All Mitchell might be able to prove is that some player was linked with a doctor or shipment. Think Paul Byrd. No suspension yet for him, yet his HGH was for a *Medical condition.* for which he had *a prescription* (okay, it was from a Dentist, but so what). If Mitchell, a lawyer, names names, the union and the players will go nuts. And the list of excuses will range from I didn’t do it, it was for my brother, the dog ate my homework, etc.

    They don’t want suspensions. They just want to appear to have been tough and then they negotiate with the players to get them to “agree” to more stringent (blood) tests or some other farcical window dressing. I’m guessing that executives in most front offices already know (by speculating) who would be named if they were to put names in.

    As for the Angels, I’m not really that worried unless they start getting production out of some of their young guys (primarily Wood and Aybar). Torii had a career year and is likely to not keep it up. And Garrett Andersen, save about six monster weeks last season, is pretty much not the player he used to be. If the rules were changed and you could bet 10 players in the Sox lineup and the 10th hitter was Torii – where would he hit? 7th, 8th? And LAA are planning on him hitting 5th. Color me not worried.

    Even with Cabrera, the Angels lineup is about league average. The real reason they will remain/become scary is if their pitching pans out.

    And finally, as for Johan – I’m not saying we have to get him. I agree that even without him, the Sox have a really strong team. Its just that a player like Johan becomes available about once every 10 years. And frankly, the players being named, even the untouchable ones, just don’t seem to be irreplaceable. And the “too much money” argument is kind of silly. The sox revenues are enormous. And if every prospect panned out and the sox had a home grown MLB roster in 2008 or 2009 that included Kottaras as the new catcher, the 1B they got for Pena or Moss or Lowrie at 1B, Pedroia, ellsbury and Bucholz and Lester both of whom blossom in 2008 and huge bullpen help from Masterson and Bowden, the Sox would turn their attention to spending many, many millions in the amateur draft or international scouting. And everyone would be crying foul that its not “fair.” And NY will do the same if the have a rotation with future HOFer Joba, Wang, Hughes and Kennedy.

  11. You know Golic on "Mike and Mike in the Morning" said that he used steroids. Tim (something) who used to play TE for the Falcons said that most of the guys he knew in the NFL took uppers and roids. Where is the outrage?

    I don't know. But, baseball is going to have to do some PR when the Mitchell Report comes out. For some reason it is SHOCKING that these huge athletes used drugs to help them get that huge. Most of us have hit the gym at some point. None of us gained 20 pounds in muscle in 3-4 months.

    Anyway, it looks like the Santana deal is going to happen. The latest deal is Lester, Coco, Lowrie, and another minor league arm (Masterson or Bowden). I think the bottom line is the Twins can't afford to not trade Santana. If they wait until July (trading deadline), the teams that want him will be in the race and won't be willing to give back major league level guys.

  12. The more complicated issue concerning a trade at the deadline is that Johan has complete no-trade. And teams/players generally don’t negotiate extensions that big in July. If you are Johan, why not just wait two more months. And from a team’s perspective, how much would you really be willing to give up for a two month rental. Part of the reason a team would pay so much now in terms of prospects is so a guy won’t hit the open market.

    If I’m a Yankee fan, I’d be pretty pissed right now. For Hank to say he can’t include Melky, Kennedy and Hughes is kind of silly. Young controllable (cheap) talent is nice, but the Yankees can certainly “afford” this trade is laughable. They have Mussina, Giambi, Abreu, Pavano, Farnsworth all coming off the books after next year. The first ace that hits the open market, I’m sure they will have problem getting. And hey, one name we have not heard all winter is Igawa. I wonder if they regret not letting him go for nothing to SD in August?

  13. Angels enter the race!

    Man the Santana sweepstakes are fun!

  14. Jacoby picks Scott Boras as his agent. Interesting move. I have always said that if a guy picks Boras, it tells you everything you need to know about their intentions. What is interesting is that there is not a lot that Boras can really do for him for about 5 more years. You would have thought he could really use a guy like that right after he was drafted - Boras plays that game really well.

  15. Team X ------> very happy that Miguel Cabrera is back in the AL. That guy pretty much won the GYS league for me in our last season as mixed league.

    DET has just snuck up on the AL as a team to beat. How about that lineup (not necessarily in this order)

    carlos guillen

    that is freakin nuts

  16. That line up is a little nuts. But I can see it going sour, if a couple of those players have off-seasons. Frankly, no one saw the return of Magglio (ok Ivan did) and I wouldn't be surprised by a decline in his production in '08. Pudge is hot/cold as is Sheffield. If 3 of those guys cool and Renteria and Cabrera have AL-itis (slow to adjust to the pitching) that will make a huge difference.

    then again this is wild speculation, a la Santana's injury!

    I love blogging... No fact checking here!

  17. The tigers had the second most runs in the AL last year. And now they add Cabrera. I agree there are some guys that injury/decline risk, but Miggy's 600 AB will be a huge step up from the ABs they wasted last year on guys like Sean Casey and Craig Monroe.

    They scored 887 runs last year. If we made that the over/under for this year, would anyone bet the under?

    Back to Johan for a minute - I can't help but think that this "taking their time" approach is simply a stall tactic by MN to see if someone else steps up with an even bigger offer. the longer this goes without getting done, the less I like the Sox chances.

  18. Who would the Angels have to give up to get Santana? The young bats? A young arm? Now that the Angels are out of the race for Cabrera, it wouldn't be as bad if they got Santana...Yes, in the playoffs it would be very tough with Lackey (although the Sox own him) and Santana. I still like the depth of the Sox rotation against the Halos...

    If he goes to the Mets or Dodgers, big deal...

    Who else could afford him? I guess the Yankees could re-enter the game...

  19. Yeah, I think the Yankees might re-enter. It seems to be a ploy of cashman of late. Swoop in with a last minute, take it or leave it offer. Like Damon and Abreu. I've heard the Mariners mentioned, but don't really have any idea.

    The angels are the one that worry me. They have incredible depth in their organization. Wood and aybar are stud who can play SS and hit for average and power. Adenhart is their stud young pitcher. Plus they have some depth and could move one or more of Santana, Saunders or Weaver. And that is not even considering Kendrick and Mathis as chips.

    But I agree, even if the Halos get Johan, they don't worry me. The offense is barely upgraded (and less so if kendrick goes in a Johan deal). And, like you said, the Sox rotation is at least as good as the Angels.

  20. Actually, Johan to the Angels would kill the Yankees as they seem to have their troubles with LAA.

  21. the tigers trade might have actually killed the Yankees. LAA should win the West by about 25 games. CLE and DET should be the top two teams in the central, with KC and MN taking a step back and possibly CHI being worse. TB and TOR should provide tougher competition for BOS and NY. The WC might not come from the East.

  22. I've been thinking a lot about the following...

    Take a look at these numbers:

    Games 29 33
    At Bats 109 116
    AVG .321 .353
    Runs 19 20
    Doubles 8 7
    HRs 6 3
    RBI 17 18
    OBP .364 .394
    SLG .596 .509

    Very similar numbers. The player on the right is Jacoby Ellsbury after his callup. The player on the left is Gregg Jeffries right after his callup. Jeffries was a "phenom", with Sports Illustrated feature stories, etc... He turned out to be a pretty good major league ballplayer for the better part of 14 years. But I would have traded him in a second for Johan Santana.

    In Jeffries best season he hit .342 with 16 HRs and 83 RBI. He also stole 46 bases that year. (186 hits .408 OBP). He never, despite playing on some pretty good offensive teams, scored over 100 runs (he did come close, but only once).

    My point? Ellsbury has big upside, no doubt. But I think that I would include him in a trade WITH Lester for Santana.

    1) You still have Buchholz and Bowden as top pitching prospects, that could both spend another year in the minors (your rotation would be full). Buchholz would get some starts on the big league club this year.

    2) You'd have Santana.

    The only drawback is that Coco tends to get banged up easily. And we can expect a few days off from Drew, as well. You'd need a "more than serviceable" fourth outfielder, but big deal.

    3) My guess is that you'd also be able to pull Masterson out of the trade giving you yet another top pitching prospect.

  23. I've been saying all along that you give up these guys to get the best pitcher in baseball.

    Fourth outfielder, for now, is Moss. Or you make a big push to keep Kielty.

    I was going to start a new thread with my mini-prediction that Johan to the Sox is dead. MN is waiting too long to pull the trigger. And they are waiting for some team to come back to the table in apnic mode and be willing to offer something big. Kind of like DET swooping in at the last minute on cabrera.

  24. Yea, something tells me that the deal is dead. That being said, MN won't get jack for Johan in June/July and they clearly won't be able to resign him.

    Even if the Sox are the best deal on the table don't you think they'll take it at some point?

    I guess, since Theo left the door open they can hang around as long as they like for a deal.

  25. From the Sox standpoint, it would be nice if this happened, but it isn't imperative. They are still going to be extremely competitive this year, and if the Yankees don't add an ace, the Sox should/could win the division.

    Maybe it is time for a new thread, but I was just thinking about something...The Yankees got off to a terrible start last year, and still won 94 games. Of course, they went on a ridiculous run after the All-Star game which they probably won't replicate. But is it crazy to think that the same Yankees team from last year won't win 97 games this year?

    Of course, the Sox will probably have better overall pitching this year with Daisuke more than likely improving on his rookie year. So this should be a dogfight this year from start to finish barring any major injuries.