If dollars are generally equal (i.e., 5 years $15 MM), would you rather have JD Drew (a monster bat that absolutely provides protection for Manny and Papi, but is also likely to miss 30 games per season or even a huge chunk of at least one entire season) or a Carlos Lee or Soriano (a much lesser bat that does not exactly fit the organization philosophy of patience, etc.)
I know the instinct might be to take the more sure thing. But if the goal is to win a WS, I think I might choose Drew. Sure one or two years he may leave us frustrated as hell, but if he puts it together in a few of those years, you have to like that 3-4-5.
Call me crazy, but JD Drew's bat is a lot like Trot's when he is/was healthy. 280s with 20 HRs...more RBI's though. He is also much better against righties (almost .300) while not so good against lefties (.244) Also, like Trot, he tends to miss a lot of time with injuries, plus he wants big money.
ReplyDeleteCarlos Lee is a much bigger threat in terms of power, but I don't know how I'd feel about him roaming RF in Fenway. That's a lot of ground to cover. And I wouldn't move Crisp over there with his arm, either. But he doesn't miss games...
Soriano, now...Last year he nearly doubled his amount of walks/year. He hit the cover off the ball, but he still is impatient. He is a liability in the field, but he adds another dimension to the Sox that neither Drew nor Lee really does...Speed. If you hit him behind Manny, he provides protection. If he gets on base, then the lack of power in the order below him doesn't really matter as much, because he can score on a single from second.
Drew is the best all around player of the three, but his injuries are troubling and he doesn't have HUGE power numbers.
Also, you have to look beyond this year, because Manny will probably not be back in '08. Maybe you take a chance with Lee in RF this year, with the thought that you move him to LF when Manny goes, and just see what happens.
There is something about JD Drew that I just don't like. Out of the three, I'd lean toward Carlos Lee for the $$$, anyway.
Yeah, I think all three are obvioulsy upgrades over what they currently have (which is nothing so even Early would be an upgrade, but I think he is focus on pitching).
ReplyDeleteOne thing that is deceptive about Lee and Drew are the home parks they play in. Drew has played in some serious pitchers parks, while Lee has played his entire career in offense friendly parks. And while Lee has a bit more raw power, it has not translated into a truly great season, ever. He has never had an OPS over .900. And Drew averages that for his career. The injuries are a risk, but like you said Lee is not very mobile.
I might be a bit skeptical of Soraino's 67 walks this year. He was in the middle of a lineup that was extremely anemic. The only other decent hitter in the lineup was Nick Johnson. So it would be natural to pitch around him. Plus, speed is not really the Sox MO.
Also, I still have a hard time believing that Manny will ever be traded by the Sox. In fact, I really think they will end even exercising his $20 MM options in 09 and 2010. Unless the Angels or someone blow the Sox away of an offer like Santana, Aybar and Kendrick, I just don't see them doing it.
And I hear you on Drew. There is something about him. Probably goes back to his whole Philly saga. I just think he is the best bat out there.
That is true about the ball parks. I would just hate for the Sox to get another RF who, despite their potential to be very good, ends up on the DL more oft than not.
ReplyDeleteAlso, the Sox need a player that is hungry to win. Is Drew that type of guy? He might be, but he strikes me (especially with his recent rejecting his contract with LA) as a guy all out for himself.
Lee might be a good fit in terms of personality. He might even push Manny a little bit in terms of power and production. But he is just soooo slow. I remember seeing Texas highlights of guys like Texiera and Blalock having to slow down to not pass him. Even with the Monster, Lee ends up with mostly singles.
However, with the money saved on Wells and Foulke and Nixon (very little on Mirabelli, Kapler) do you want just one guy like Drew for 3 years?
I'd rather package some of the young guys for Andru Jones...
"Also, the Sox need a player that is hungry to win. Is Drew that type of guy? He might be, but he strikes me (especially with his recent rejecting his contract with LA) as a guy all out for himself."
ReplyDeleteI think it is too hard to judge whether a guy wants to win based on contracts, agents, etc. Sure having Boras as your agent says you want absolutely top dollar. And even holding out for a year, etc. seems like chicken sh*t to guys like us slugging along for middle class wages. But Varitek has Boras as his agent. And held out for a year from Seattle. And no one ever questions his will to win. In fact, I think Drew actually is a lot like Nixon, in that he gives it his all and ends up getting dinged as a result.
Now Jones would be an interesting cat. I wouldn't mind seeing them package Coco and maybe a Delcarmen or more preferably Abe Alvarez. The only concern with that is he has one more year and then is a FA (with Boras as his agent and already talking about Beltran $$$).