Random Thought

I really like how Tom Glavine was going through some deep internal debate about whether to pursue his 300th victory as a Met or a Brave. And it was very nice of him to keep us informed of his thought process – he was taking a vacation with his family over Thanksgiving and would have his mind made up by Monday. One small problem with his process. The Braves aren’t interested. Interesting approach. And I guess it is not done, but if you are the Braves do you make him a $5MM take it or leave it offer. Or do you engage in “negotiations” in order to drive up the price for your division rival. Especially now that Minaya must be getting antsy. Its almost December 1 and he hasn’t signed any huge multi-year contracts yet.

How much for winning a MacArthur grant?

I can't decide which incentive clause in Alfonso Soriano's obscene contract with the Cubs less likely to happen:

- $350,000 if he is selected the World Series MVP
- $75,000 if he wins a Gold Glove

No-brainer

Best news I've gotten all week: Dante Bichette is on the 2007 Hall of Fame Ballot.

DANTE BICHETTE: 1^st year on the ballot… Played 14 seasons… Led National League in hits, home runs, RBI, slugging percentage and extra base hits in 1995; his .340 average was third in the NL… Finished second in the NL MVP voting that year, behind Barry Larkin… Named to The Sporting News Silver Slugger team in 1995…One season with 40-plus home runs, three seasons with 30-plus home runs and eight seasons with 20-plus home runs…Nine consecutive seasons of 30-plus doubles and five consecutive seasons of 100-plus RBI… Six seasons batting .300 or better, with a career average of .299… Named to four All-Star teams (1994-96, 1998)… One NL Division series (1995): batted .588 with 10 hits, including three doubles and a home run, in 17 LDS at-bats.

Think anyone will vote for him? (If so, is that grounds for getting kicked out of the BBWAA?)

Update: as of now, 374 voters in ESPN's poll think he should get in. Hopefully most of them are smartasses like me. Man, I wish I had more time to keep voting until he gets the required 75%.

Here we go again

The "Manny is about to be traded" rumors are bigger than ever. I suppose that means something (though the media always has to make the newest rumor seem bigger than the last). I just don't get it - so far none of the options seem like good trades at all. Moreover, Manny's contract looks better than it ever has - way crappier players like Soriano are now getting almost as much, and Manny's contract is no longer a huge multiyear deal. And the thought of J.D. Drew (or whoever) providing "protection" for Ortiz is just laughable. Yikes.

Its that time again

Book Review.

This month’s entry. The Blind Side by Michael Lewis.

A football story that simultaneously focuses on two somewhat related stories. It is the story of Michael Oher a 6-5 350 pound African American form the inner city, with absolutely no family, no education, nothing. He gets “adopted” by a wealthy family who send him to an exclusive Christian school in Memphis and transform him into an elite athlete, passable student and caring human. The somewhat related story is the evolution of the Left Tackle position on football and its importance in the game (protecting the QBs “blind side.”)

Of course the publisher is going to sell this up as doing for Football what Moneyball did for Baseball. It won’t. But it is a good read. And Lewis is back to his much more entertaining style of writing that he seemed to have lost in his last book. Funny thing about Blind Side is that he stumbled on Oher when he was writing Coach – the adoptive parent was one of Lewis’ friends from High School that he contacted to write the story of their coach.

Plus, I always have thought it was pretty cool that he is married to Tabitha Soren from MTV fame. Overall a pretty good book.

Mourneau. MVP.

Nice. Very nice.

Hoo boy

Leave it to the Chicago Cubs to make Todd Helton's ridiculous contract seem reasonable, and the $51M posting fee for Matsuzaka a downright bargain. $136M for eight years? For a 30-year old? Who can't play defense? I doubt I have anything to say that others haven't said already, but so far I haven't found anyone who thinks this is a great idea for the Cubs...

Fun with Numbers

Courtesy of Joe Borowski, who reports "I think of the 30 closers in the league, 99.5 percent of them have better stuff than I do. But my attitude, my heart, my desire, and my knowledge in how to get hitters out gets the job done. "

I'm guessing Joe was not a math major at Rutgers. Joe must have been saying that every closer has better stuff than him. Either that, or he watched Todd Jones this season, he realizes that Armando Benitez still sucks or perhaps he was watching the Tribe during the week they tried the Fausto Carmino experiment, which means he really should have said "I think of the 30 closers in the league, 96.5 percent of them have better stuff than I do." But that probably does not make as good of copy.

"You know, you're actually quite sexy..."

This is almost a month old, but we barely touched on it: MLB and MLBPA announced a new CBA for the next five years, with surprisingly little trouble. I guess when the owners are consigned to higher salaries, and the players are consigned to drug tests, they don't have too much to argue about. And everyone's a winner - millionaires AND billionaires alike! The luxury tax continues, but the thresholds keep increasing, up to $178M in 2011 (an increase of $40M over this year). Minimum salaries go up also, to $400,000 in 2009 for major leaguers and $65,000 in 2009 for minor leaguers (I think the era of minor league players "struggling to make ends meet" is officially over). But what's most interesting to me is the new draft compensation rules: it looks like those are being slowly phased out....

1. Type C free agents eliminated in 2006
2. Also in 2006, compensation for type B players becomes indirect (sandwich pick) as opposed to direct compensation from signing Club.
3. Effective 2007, Type A players limited to top 20 percent of each position (down from 30 percent) and Type B players become 21 percent - 40 percent at each position (rather than 31 percent - 50 percent).

This really might change the dynamics of free agency. I like the idea of compensation picks; I have no data to back this up but I think it's a much more effective way to achieve parity than revenue sharing or the luxury tax. These changes certainly benefits teams who love free agents (Yankees), but they seem to be pretty devastating for teams which rely on young players with relatively small salaries (A's). For the Sox it seems to be a pretty mixed bag - on one hand, they certainly rely on free agents...but on the other hand, as X has pointed out more than once, compensation picks seem to be a pretty important part of the FO's plan for building a strong farm system. Not sure I like this change...

Dr. Z

The guy behind Lucchino and Henry (the one who's trying to catch a marshmallow in his mouth) is Andrew Zimbalist, "one of the world's foremost experts on the economics of professional sports". At least that's what he was called on NPR today. My question is: "one of the foremost experts"? Judging from the national media, surely he's the only one. Really, in news reports, have you heard discussions of the economics of sports from anyone else? Anyhow, I don't know how he finds time to teach (he's a professor at Smith College) or write (he's written 14 books), because he seems to give interviews to freakin' everyone. He's quoted in 35 newpaper articles in the last month alone, covering topics like the Olympics, coaches' salaries, stadium funding, and of course Daisuke Matsuzaka. He's been arguing that Matsuzaka's appeal in Japan will bring the Sox maybe $3M/year. Maybe he's right...but where the hell does that number come from? I'm sure it's based on some real data/calculations, but I have no idea what those might be. But of course, when he gives some numbers, they go unquestioned. The media never ask (or aren't interested in reporting) about the source of his numbers, and apparently can't (or won't) find anyone to give a second opinion. So seriously, does nobody else study the economics of sports? Or do those people exist, but just don't give interviews?