Not to Scream Over Small Things, but...

Tom Singer of MLB.com wrote the following about the Red Sox and Angels:

"Both teams may regard this as the biggest obstacle to the World Series: The Red Sox went 5-2 against Cleveland and see so much of the Yankees, they're always willing to take their chances with them; and the Angels held their own while splitting 10 games with the Indians, and always like their karma against the Bombers."

A couple of small points to make here. One, both teams are whole-heartedly focused on this series because it doesn't matter if you don't make it out. Two, the Indians are playing much better ball than the Angels right now, and probably the Sox. Three, I am not sure the Angels or the Sox don't view the Yankees as the biggest hurdle, especially the Sox (losing a large portion of the last 10 games against them). The Sox are "always willing to take their chances with" the Yankees? I don't think they're scared, but my guess is they'd rather go LAA, Cleveland on the road to the Series than have to play the Yankees...

I know it is Tom's job to drum up interest in this post-season matchup. The rest of his article is interesting, but just took it a little too far...

Amazin'

I'm sure tomorrow's NY tabloids will have some awesome headlines about the Mets. I just can't figure out what they might be. Any ideas?

AL East Champs and Now The Playoffs...

Ok, so the LAA come to Boston next week for the playoffs. I am guessing:

Beckett v Lackey
Daisuke v Santana
Schilling v Escobar

Does that sound about right?

I am also guessing the lineup goes back to something like:

Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Manny LF
Drew RF
Lowell 3b
Tek C
Youk 1B
Lugo SS

Of course, Youk might move back to the top, but Francona loves the left/right/left/right thing...and Youk hasn't gotten back to form quite yet. And I think the Sox send Ellsbury and Lugo a lot to keep the pressure on.

Without sounding too confident, I fully expect the Sox to get to the ALCS where I would rather face Cleveland, even if Cleveland has the home field...

But back to this series...The Sox are coming in healthier than the Angels. The Angels are sub-500 on the road. Vlad and Matthews are hurting. And the Sox tend to knock the Angels ace (Lackey) around. One caveat for the Sox is that if the series goes 5, I think that the Angels take it. I think the same team seeing Daisuke twice in a short span will be more likely to get to him the second game.

Also, if you are Francona, how do you manage these next two games? Do you rest Papi or let him keep getting his swings? Do you pitch Wake for five today and then let Snyder pitch a few innings regardless of how he's throwing the ball? Then Schill and Tavarez the same plan on Sunday?

Lessons still being learned????

I was coming to post - "Hey Dice K has pitched 6 great innings - why does Tito not get him out of there and have him finish the regular season on a positive not?"

And then Mourneau hits a lead off HR. Damnit. I hope he gets out of this inning with no more damage.

Disturbing A-Rod picture of the day

From the NY Daily News:

Sort of Random Thoughts

3 is the magic number...The Sox are up by 3.

The Yankees are 8-8 versus the D-Rays. 35-32 versus the AL East.

The playoffs lineup in the Yankees favor as of today. They haven't lost to Cleveland this year, but are 3-6 against the Angels. The Wild Card gets Cleveland at this point.

Drew is on a tear and, hopefully, it carries through the playoffs. With the return of Youk and Manny, and Drew and Lowell still hitting, this becomes a dangerous lineup.

The Mets are struggling over in the NL East. If the Phillies catch them, the Mets are likely not to make the playoffs.

I am rooting for the Royals to overtake the White Sox in the AL Central.

I am glad the World Series is in an American League ballpark.

Santana is pitching for the Twins today. That means he won't pitch in Fenway. Probably good news for the Sox in terms of winning the division.

Ellsbury is the CF next year. No doubt. I am guessing Coco is gone.

With Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youk, Papelbon, Lester, Buchholz, and possibly Bowdoin at cheap money, and on the roster next year one has to give credit to the scouts for finding so much talent...Secondly, do they run at a big free agent? A-Rod at SS? That won't happen, but that is the only place I could see an upgrade...Unless they cut Lowell loose and run at A-Rod for 3b...

Of course, they could package a few players to Texas if they are willing to part with Saltalamacchia...but, I doubt they would...

Lastly, Francona has done a great job in a strange situation. Deciding on whether or not to play for the division, while having to rest guys...He seems to be making all the right decisions, right now...

Good news

Today's lineup. Check out who's batting second.

AL East

Obviously anything can happen, but I think it is pretty safe to say that if the Yankees lose today, the Sox should win the division. If they win today, due to the tiebreaker, I imagine they are going to make it very hard for the Sox. Let's hope Burnett pitches as well against them as he did against the Sox. Make it an even 2 games with six left. If the Sox go 4-2 at home (and I think not having to face Johan), then NY has to go undefeated. Of course, the Sox could go 2-4 and in that case, they'll probably lose the division no matter what happens today.

Home field advantage

I'm glad to see I'm not the only one who doesn't really feel too strongly about whether the Sox take the Wild Card vs. the AL East. Obviously, winning the division would be awesome, but the Yankees are in a 63-33 run, which is pretty damn hard to compete with, and losing serious ground to a team like that does not constitute a choke. Check out this piece of ridiculousness comparing the Sox 2007 season to 1978. Note that the words "wild" and "card", which are kind of important when discussing the playoffs, don't appear until about 3/4 of the way down.

Just about the only argument that makes any sense why the Sox "need" to win the division is the home field advantage that comes with it. So: does it matter? The Sox offense is way better at home (AL rank in parentheses):

HOME: .295 BA (4th), .378 OBP (2nd), .459 SLG (3rd), .838 OPS (2nd), 71 HR
AWAY: .263 BA (10th), .344 OBP (3rd), 419 SLG (6th), .763 OPS (6th), 80 HR

But check out their pitching stats:

HOME: 4.18 ERA (6th), 2.50 K/BB (4th), .261 BAA (5th), .726 OPSA (5th)
AWAY: 3.57 ERA (1st, by a lot), 2.20 K/BB (3rd), .233 BAA (1st, by a lot), .684 OPSA (1st, by a lot)

I have no idea what this means; and I don't have time to look these numbers up for only August-September. But it would seem to suggest that either (1) with the exception of HR, Fenway is still very much a hitter's park, or (2) we have the right hitters but the wrong pitchers for Fenway.

Either way, given these differences I'd expect not too much of a road-home split in wins. But it's huge: they're 47-28 at home, 43-35 away.

Brilliant analysis

Jerry Crasnick, saying that the trade for Eric Gagne had a negative impact on the Sox:

"To make matters worse, Gagne's problems have been contagious. Okajima has a 7.04 ERA since Gagne's arrival."

I really hope that was a joke, but I don't think it was. Yes, Gagne's been awful. But does anyone really think he's made Okajima worse? We were all confused (happily so) about why the Sox picked up another setup man. Now we know why they did: there was some concern about Okajima's durability over the entire season. Had Gagne not arrived, Okajima probably would've gone on the DL in late August.

Not to say the trade was a good idea, but it's pretty damn stupid to blame Okajima's troubles on it.