Thursday, November 19, 2009

Bay Rejects Offer

As could be expected, with the free agency market about to open, Bay rejected the first offer from the Sox. After the numbers he put up this year, how could he accept the first offer? This is his pay day.

The NY Mets, according to numerous web sites and reports, are ready to make Bay their number one off-season priority. It would be easy to say that this interest in agent driven (a la Boras) to get the Sox to up their offer. However, Bay may be the biggest bat available this off-season.

I know it sounds crazy, but I don't see the Sox getting into a bidding war with anyone over Bay. They will set a price for him and then see if he will accept. If not, then on to plan B.

In this case, I believe plan B will actually be plan A (which is getting Gonzalez from San Diego). Since missing on Texeira, and seeing his value (even at over what the Sox offered him), it would seem this is on player for whom the Sox would readily "overpay".

Either way, the free agency door opens at midnight tonight.


  1. Hmmm. I saw this post. got ready to repsond. but then got distracted. I had to go buy me some Uggs.

    I don't think it is crazy at all to say the sox won't get swept up in any Bay bidding. I think we've commented on it already. Bay is a decent hitter, but not great. He crushes weak pitchers and struggles against good pitchers.

    Like Theo always does, he'll place the value on the player and not overpay.

    2010 could become a rebuilding year. I guess with Beckett and Lester they will be good, but with Ortiz, Lowell, Beckett, Lugo's $$ coming off the books after next year, they may think about waiting until then and reloading with a couple key FAs (Mauer, Carl Crawford, Halladay, Lee, etc) and work in Casey Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland.

    No signings yet.

    Now gotta go try on my new Uggs.

  2. I cleaned up the ugh mess. I hate that.

    I don't think the Sox would do nothing for left-field. But I guess with Hermedia on-board we could start the season and see how things progress.

  3. I think if they used Hermida, they would find a platoon Partner. career vs LH pitchers he bats 237/321/367 (82 OPS) vs righties he is 271/351/444 (106 OPS). I bet they could find a right handed hitter that could crush lefties. They actually already have that guy in Baldelli. Its just a matter of whether they wuold be willing to give him that many ABs and/or actually do that platoon split.

    Not to gall all grieve here, but as much as I'm not enamored with Bay, a lineup of

    Alex gonzaelz/Lowrie

    That does not thrill me either.

  4. MLB trade rumors are pointing to some speculation that Matt Holliday will be our next Left Fielder.

    Also there is some premature talk about Doc Halliday. You heard it hear first, Daisy will buy herself one of those $200 player jerseys if her Doc rolls into town.

  5. I just can't see the Holliday story playing out in Boston.

    Not with his disaster AL stint earlier this year. It was ugly especially the first 6 weeks or so and it was not all just the OAK ballpark. And check his stats from Interleague play while with COL. 7HR in 300 AB.

    Not with Boras as his agent. All sides will say there is no bad blood from the Teixeria negotiations. I don't believe it.

    And not for the number of years and $$ that it would take to get it done. Just because he might be 85% of the player that Teixeria is, doesn't mean he should get 85% of the pay.

    And did I mention Scott Boras. Bottom line - he will go to whoever the highest bidder is. And that is rarely the Sox in the FA market.

    I think Halladay more likely than Holliday.

  6. Also, Scutaro says he wants to play here. Problem is that unless there is a guy waiting in the wings, Scutaro isn't going to give you much. He had a career year last year, but I don't expect him to repeat that.

  7. I think they will monitor Scutaro and see what happens in the market. The early speculation is that Scutaro is looking for a three year deal. As Grieve pointed out, the guy is coming off a career year. As X will point out further, he has had one good (not even great) year and only one other (not good) year where he has played 140 games. He had the stellar .379 OBP last year, but he has a career .339 OBP.

    I think the only chance they get serious with Scutaro is if a) the price drops significantly, b) nothing bigger or better comes along (i.e., Hanley), and c) the Sox end up netting an extra draft pick if Billy Wagner signs somehwere. Of course Scutaro wants to play in Boston. The Sox are contenders. They have money to spend. And Toronto just signed Gonzalez and have McDonald, so there is no room in TOR.

    There is just no way I see them even giving him 2 years at $6MM each.

    And as "proof" that there is no way the Sox will go two years, let alone three years, I present to you Orlando Hudson Winter 2008 - 2009. Everyone was saying he was in line for a 3 or 4 year deal. His career numbers were remarkably similar to Scutaro's one year wonder. O-Dog had won a few gold gloves. And he had to settle for one year and less than $3.5MM guaranteed. And he wasn't signed until about a week before spring training.

    With all the (negative) history, I can't see Theo making another Free Agent splash at SS.

  8. Now, of course, they are looking at Pedroia moving back to his original position (before the Sox organization moved him to second because of Hanley Ramirez). It would be a last ditch effort.

    I am not thrilled about that move. He seems to move to his right better than to his left. Unless they get a 2B that can cover a ton of ground behind the bag, I am not into this idea. Although, I think at one point, Chone Figgins played 2B. I wouldn't mind him in the infield and at the top of the order.

  9. Its all a negotiating ploy. Basically so that they can tell whatever FA or trade partner that they have options. Now the pool of options is bigger. You can stll plug in Scutaro or make a trade, but now you can "negotiate" with Orlando Hudson, Placido Polanco. etc and all of a sudden Scutaro doesn't need a two year deal.

  10. I heard Schilling on the radio this morning. He was saying that Pedroia is on a weight loss program in order to increase his range. Now, that could be for second base, too. Schilling did add the Pedroia has the ability to become a top 5 shortstop.

    I think beyond negotiating (not negating at all what you are saying), it gives them the ability to look for a good offensive player for either position rather than just one. Which is probably what you meant. But I do think they would move Pedroia over until one of their prospects is ready to move up to the bigs.

    Looking back to your first comment in this thread, X, do you think they'll try to resign Beckett?

  11. To answer the question on Beckettt, I think "yes, they will try to sign him." Whether they be able to get something done is another issue.

    He is signed through this year only. And will make $12MM this year. He has to be looking at Burnett's deal and be salivating. And lackey is probably due to make around $18MM as well. And this ignores, for a moment, the CC deals and a potential deal for Halladay.

    Probably the only chance the Sox have of keeping him, is to go to him today and offer him 4 years at $18 or $20MM. Even then, Beckett might think he'd be better off to wait.

    He's already made $50MM in his career, so he's set for life. He has not had an major injuries (or anything more than some minor fatigue) in a while. So he has to be thinking he can wait out this year and hit the market. Where, as a battle tested AL East Number One starter, he'd easily get a year deal for 5 - 6 years at CC $$ ($22-23MM). And it very may well be from the Yankees.

    Hell, even Johan and likely Halladay, got over $20 MM and they weren't even FAs.

    So, the question will be, will the Sox make an offer so rich that it will sway Josh from playing out the year and hitting the market. And if they don't do that, then do we think the Sox will be the highest bidder next Winter.

    I think, if we have all been paying attention. The answer to that second question is NO. The Answer to the first question is "maybe, but not anything close to a sure thing."

    They did it with Papi a few year back (but not for totally silly money).

    And if they were trying to do it now (extend him), don't you think we'd have heard some rumblings about it already?