Is Boston Ready To Go?

Wow...as soon as the money is off the books, the Sox spent it. Good for them. Let's face it, the Yankees (despite losing to Texas in the playoffs) still have a hell of a team. Add to it the fact that the Rays are stacked, and the Sox had to do something to remain relevant in the AL East.

The offensive side of the ball is pretty much set for the Sox. Projected lineup:

Ellsbury CF
Pedroia 2B
Crawford LF
Youk 3B
Gonzalez 1B
Ortiz DH
Drew RF
Scutaro SS
Saltalamacchia C

Despite being HEAVILY left-handed, this is a very potent and YOUNG lineup. You have two guys with 50+ stolen base capability, and three legit sluggers.

Now to the pitching. The starting rotation was supposed to be a strength for this team last year, but basically failed on most accounts. I am still wary of this rotation despite the names.

Beckett
Lackey
Lester
Buchholz
Matsuzaka

Beckett and Lackey last year were not dependable. Beckett started 21 games going 6-6 with a 5.78 ERA and gave up 151 hits in 127 and 2/3 innings. Lackey was durable throwing the most innings by any starter. He was 14-11 with a 4.40 ERA. Maybe the expectations were too high for him going into last season. But he was considered the 1 or 2 in the rotation originally. He was number 3 at best. At $17MM, is it not fair to expect more?

Lester and Buchholz were brilliant. Lester threw 208 innings, posted a 19-9 record with 225Ks, and a 3.25 ERA. Buchholz was 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA in just over 175 innings. Similar years are expected from both.

Matsuzaka was not great, but he is a number 5 starter that would be a 3 or 4 on most other teams, so it is difficult to complain about him in the larger picture.

Your rotation should lineup:

Lester
Buchholz
Lackey
Beckett
Matsuzaka

However, there is no way that Francona makes Beckett the number 4. Not that it matters much once you get past that first part of the season.

There is no bullpen to speak of at the moment. Bard should only improve over his very good year as a setup man. Papelbon better come in prepared this year or he'll lose that coveted closer spot to Bard. He blew 8 saves last year, and the clean innings were few if any. Maybe the competition will be good for him. Maybe not. Another proven setup man would be the way to go for the Sox making Wakefield and a Michael Bowden type the long men in the pen.

The lineup? Great
Starting Pitching? Good
Bullpen? Problematic

It Ain't Over Til...wait, it is over

Last night's loss to the Rays pretty much ended the run for the 2010 Boston Red Sox. What is left to say except that they fared better than I initially thought?

This is a team that truly was not built for the playoffs. Unfortunately, many got caught up in chasing an expensive, yet underbuilt team. I know I'll take some criticism for this, but it is true. Don't think so?

How many thought Beltre would have this year? Not many. If you thought the front office did, you're crazy. They were looking for a one year guy to get them through.

How many thought Bill Hall would have the numbers? Not many.

Granted injuries have played a major role, but I still contend that this team was not a contender. Here's the early lineup:

Ellsbury
Pedroia
V-Mart
Youk
Ortiz
Beltre
Drew
Scutaro
Cameron

Bounce the last two all over the lineup if you like. The fact of the matter is that Beltre was predicted to be this good. Ortiz has far exceeded expectations. They got LUCKY.

The bullpen has been a mess since day one.

The strength was to be starting pitching.

Beckett
Lester
Lackey
Daisuke
Buchholz

That IS a hell of a rotation. But let's consider that NO ONE was sure about Daisuke and Buchholz and the strength was in the top three. Lester is the only one worthy out of three of any praise.

Still, no one will argue (even when the Sox team is fully healthy) that the Yankees lineup is not far superior. Then go through the rotations. Then go through the bullpens.

Then take the Rays. Go through their lineup. Go through their rotation. Go through their pen.

This Sox team just isn't good enough. Even healthy, I would put forth that they would be in a similar position. Take the paper and pen away for a second and LOOK at the games against the "upper crust". The Sox look outclassed.

So what is the plan going forward....Let's discuss.

Happy New Year

Happy New Year GYS! I couldn't help but share this AWESOME painting by Veron Wells Jr. Yes, he is related to Veron Wells III who plays CF for the Toronto BJs. Thanks to Jeff Passan's informative summary of Toronto's off-season moves, I am a much happier man.

Not Just a Lackey, but no Halladay

Maybe Roy wasn't available to the Sox. Maybe Bay said privately to Theo that there was no way he would come back to Boston. Maybe we'll never know exactly the reasoning behind all these things. But what we should know as Sox fans is that with these types of moves, you are getting less than you are led to believe.

I've heard the Boston spin that Lackey has post-season experience and that he has 500-less innings on his arm than Halladay. Let's face it, though. He ain't Halladay. I don't even think he's Sabathia or Beckett.

The Sox will reportedly be paying $17MM/year for a guy who will fit into the top 3 in your rotation, but isn't an ace. Will the Sox be formidable with Beckett, Lester, and Lackey? Absolutely. There will probably not be many extended losing streaks. And the Sox might be banking on the "just get to the playoffs" where pitching wins scenario. Would those three in the playoffs be difficult? Again, absolutely.

However, (and I am not falling back into the pre-2004 mind frame here, just reality), there is a team in the Bronx through which other teams must go. I hate to say it but Sabathia is better than any of the Sox top pitchers (Lackey included). Burnett proved he is a strong post-season guy. And Pettitte is ridiculous (and mostly untouchable) in the post-season. Add to this the Yankees lineup, and the Sox are up against it before they start.

This is compounded by their current roster. They've agreed to a contract with Cameron, which pretty much rules out Bay. In Cameron, they've acquired a veteran who is on the wrong side of 35. So here's the projected lineup:

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Papi
Youk
Martinez
Drew
Cameron
Lowell
Scutaro

While on paper it isn't bad, there are lots of questions marks and an astounding lack of run producers (especially for the last 4 names in the lineup). It is clear the Sox are focusing on strong pitching and defense, a philosophy that did not work out well for them in the past. In the AL you need pitching, defense, AND offense.

They, of course, might be moving Lowell (if he passes his physical). They aren't getting a guy that will help this year. My overall feeling is that they signed Lackey for beyond this year, not necessarily to make the big splash. By losing Bay and signing Lackey, I feel like the Sox will be as competitive as last year. They will be competitive against good pitching as they'll be able to matchup well up and down the rotation. However, they won't score (much like last year) against good pitching.

Most writers are saying "maybe this isn't a bridge year after all". I disagree.

Granderson to Yanks

It might be just me, but this one just makes me yawn? If Granderson takes Damon's place, frankly, that is a downgrade. Not to mention that Granderson can't hit lefties and has been in a steep two year decline. Okay, so he *might* bounce back playing in that tiny ball park. But he might not. We know what Damon could/did do. so for now, they have downgraded.

That being said, my gut tells me they aren't done. Melky, well, he kind of sucks. So they probably will sign Bay or Holliday and dump Melky for some middle reliever. And they will do it after one of Bay or Holliday has signed somewhere else, leaving the Sox no option and fueling the end of the world discussions in Boston, WEEI, etc.

Put another log on the hot stove Theo. Its about to get real chilly in Boston.

Scutaro. Done deal.

So it looks like I was dead wrong on this one. MLB.com is reporting its official. A two year deal, no financial terms reported yet. It will probably be out there by the time you East Coast guys are up, but nothing now. Two years is better than three. And they supposedly are really high on this 19 year old Dominican kid they signed (Iglesias) and think he could be ready in two years. So I guess it fits. Plus, he can play some other positions in case of injury or the emergence of Lowrie as a stud, Scutaro could then be a super sub. I'm surprised that this one happened so quickly.

I don't love signing a guy off a career year. That said, I don't think the difference between the Sox being good and the Sox being great next year, will come down to who is playing SS and batting 8th or 9th. They need offensive consistency. And need better production in the 3-4 spot in the rotation, whether its Dice-K, Bucholz or getting Halladay or maybe even a guy like Randy Wolf (if they move Clay to get a bat.)

Bay Rejects Offer

As could be expected, with the free agency market about to open, Bay rejected the first offer from the Sox. After the numbers he put up this year, how could he accept the first offer? This is his pay day.

The NY Mets, according to numerous web sites and reports, are ready to make Bay their number one off-season priority. It would be easy to say that this interest in agent driven (a la Boras) to get the Sox to up their offer. However, Bay may be the biggest bat available this off-season.

I know it sounds crazy, but I don't see the Sox getting into a bidding war with anyone over Bay. They will set a price for him and then see if he will accept. If not, then on to plan B.

In this case, I believe plan B will actually be plan A (which is getting Gonzalez from San Diego). Since missing on Texeira, and seeing his value (even at over what the Sox offered him), it would seem this is on player for whom the Sox would readily "overpay".

Either way, the free agency door opens at midnight tonight.

What Next for the Sox?

The very rich Yankees have won the World Series. A friend of mine, a Yankees fan, wrote "I wonder what Theo Epstein is thinking?". This, in turn, got me thinking. Theo is probably thinking that if he had $75-$80MM dollars more that he could have had Sabathia and Texeira...and another rolling rally through Boston.

However, he doesn't. What he does have is a team with aged veterans and lots of questions.

Let's get the easiest area out of the way first:

Many will feel comfortable entering the season with Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Matsuzaka and Wakefield as the 1-5. They have depth at Pawtucket. Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing them add John Lackey (who is available). Their inconsistent offense would be carried by a front three of Beckett, Lester, and Lackey. I don't care about an overload of pitching. The Sox should not be comfortable rounding out their rotation with Buchholz (who may or may not develop), Wakefield (who misses longer periods of time each year), and Daisuke (no one can say for sure that he is going back to 18 wins).

The pen should good enough to start the season with Bard getting a full season's shot as the eighth-inning guy and Papelbon still closing games. The Sox should pick up the option on Wagner. He was very effective as a power lefty out of the pen, and can be used in many save opportunities giving Papelbon some rest.

At the catching position you have Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek. Tek did not play at all in the playoffs which means that the Sox are looking to Martinez as the primary catcher. But Martinez is not going to catch every game next year. Will Tek be happy with this as a backup? He'll get his time behind the plate, but probably 60 games at the most. However, behind the plate appearances for Varitek would increase if Lowell continues to be hampered by his injuries. Youk slides to third, Martinez plays first, Tek catches.

Bay entered the free agent pool today. That's a problem. Damon is probably not getting re-upped by the Yankees, and Bay could be wearing pinstripes in a month or two. Bay is probably the best bat available on the free agent market. The Yankees proved beyond a doubt last year that they will throw tons of money around (amounts with which no one could compete...by the way, the Yankees spent $97MM more than the Phillies on payroll this year. In their 2008 championship season, the Phillies spent just under $98MM. To demonstrate the gap in the two WS teams this year, that would be like the Rays spending $1.5MM for their total salary last year against the Phillies).

If Damon doesn't resign with the Yankees, is there a chance he returns to Fenway in LF? A two-year contract might get it done.

Gonzales is gone. The Sox love Lowrie, but he might be damaged goods at this point. He is too injury prone to count on as the everyday guy as SS. Marco Scutaro is available, and the Sox should target him.

Youk and Pedroia are fine at first and second. Drew and Ellsbury in RF and CF, respectively, should be ok. There lineup still lacks punch and consistency with Tek, Lowell, and Lowrie.

Ellsbury
Pedroia
Martinez
Youkilis
Ortiz
Drew
Lowell
Lowrie

These are your everyday guys. Matt Holliday is available. If they aren't going after Bay, they better get Holliday. Abreu resigned today, so he is off the market.

Chone Figgins is also a free agent, and a multi-position guy. Primarily a 3b, but flexible. You start to get a NL feel to this team with Figgins and Ellsbury at the top. Is that a bad thing?

What I am hoping the Sox do NOT do is follow their current trend of retreads (see Penny, Smoltz, Baldelli). Texeira to the Yankees is a division changer for years to come. Without Bay, there isn't a difference maker on the Sox. And despite Bay's numbers, he didn't "feel" like a difference maker.

All the other teams in the East have holes. Tampa couldn't hold on to Kazmir, they have to try to get a deal done with Crawford (which means they probably won't be huge players in the FA market this offseason). Toronto isn't getting better. Baltimore is a mess. But this doesn't guarantee a post-season birth for the Sox. Out west, the Rangers will be very good again this year, and the Angels are poised for another strong season. The Sox cannot expect that 95 wins gets them in. Too many other teams will be in the Wild Card running. They need to change enough where they can make a run at the division.

So, what do they do? That is the question...

Finally a player whose name I won't mess up

Jeremy Hermedia joins the Sox.

Out classed

If I may indulge a brief tangent. Ok, I don't even need to ask, who am I kidding.

So Team USA almost completed the Cinderella story. A light touch from Dempsey on a great serve from Proctor put the world cup giants on their heals. Then, about 20 minutes later a wonderful orchestrated counter-attack was deftly and coolly finished off by Landon. It appeared for a moment that Team US was about to pull off the most unbelievable comeback in international tournament play.

But that is when the Brazilian gods woke up, disgusted by the potential embarrassment of losing to the filthy Americans, asked their lovely assistant (pictured here) to step aside and put on a soccer clinic in the second half. There is a word from the 80's that describes what happened to Team USA, "SCHOOLED".

In a way, I prefer these results. Let's hope this loss smarts enough to create a real fire in the belly for Team USA. Then we might stand a chance to get to the quarter finals of 2010 world cup.